On Wednesday, 07-28-10 at 8:30 AM ET, the Census Bureau released the monthly report USD Core Durable Goods Orders MoM report.

My “preview” post concerning these reports was on Tuesday, 07-27-10, click here for a review.

Here is how the reports for this month were set up and the results:

USD – Core Durable Goods Orders m/m – Stats

Previous = 1.6%_______  revised = 1.2%

Forecast = 0.6%

Actual = -0.6%

Here is how I was set up and what happened:

USD-7-30AM-ET-07-28-10
Looking for a 1.5% difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
——actual——–forecast——–previous
______________0.6%________1.6%
_____-0.6%____ 0.6%_______ 1.2%
out at -0.9% or lower – SELL USD/JPY
out at 2.1% or higher – BUY USD/JPY
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 1.0%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “previous” by 2.2%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then revised “previous” by 1.8%

There was not enough of a difference – but, I did enter a trade this time of  the currency pair USD/JPY – and it was a wnner!!

Here are the charts:

(EUR/JPY)

a one minute EUR/JPY chart

This EUR/JPY currency pair moved down 1st 2 minutes about 30 PIPS
Moved up next 49 minutes about 39 PIPS

(EUR/USD)

a one minute EUR/USD chart

This EUR/USD currency pair moved up/down 1st 2 minutes
Moved up next 3 minutes about 15 PIPS
Ranged for 6 minutes
Moved down next 10 minutes about 24 PIPS

(GBP/JPY)

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

This GBP/JPY currency pair moved down for 3 minutes about 40 PIPS
Moved up next 49 minutes about 71 PIPS

(GBP/USD)

a one minute GBP/USD chart

This GBP/USD currency pair moved up/down 1st 4 minutes about 6 PIPS/ 14 PIPS
Moved up next 15 minutes about 25 PIPS

(USD/CAD)

a one minute USD/CAD chart

This USD/CAD currency pair Ranged!

(USD/JPY)

a one minute USD/JPY chart

This USD/JPY currency pair moved down 1st 3 minutes about 23 PIPS
Ranged for 7 minutes!
Moved up next 35 minutes about 20 PIPS

The next scheduled release of these reports is on Wednesday, 08-25-10 at 8:30 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!

On Tuesday, 07-27-10, at 10:00AM ET the USD Consumer Confidence report was  released.

The last “preview” was posted on Monday, 07-26-10, click here for a review.

Also the USD – Richmond Manufacturing Index was released by The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

The Consumer Confidence is released by The Conference Board, Inc.

Lets take a look at what is going on with this news release:

USD Consumer Confidence Stats:

Previous = 52.9

Forecast = 51.5———– revised = 51.3

Actual = 50.4

Here is how I was set up, and the results:

USD-10-00 AM-ET-07-27-10
Looking for a 5.0 difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for the USD
USD CB Consumer Confidence
——actual——–forecast——–previous
______________51.5_________52.9
______50.4____ 51.3
out at 56.5 or higher – BUY USD/JPY
out at 46.5 or lower – SELL USD/JPY
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 1.1
Bad – “actual” came out lower then revised “forecast” by 0.9
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “previous” by 2.5

Did not enter a trade!!

I had set up to trade the currency pair USD/JPY with a 5.0 difference between the “actual” and the “forecast”.

Well, the “actual” did not come out greater then the 5.0 difference!

Check out the charts.

(EUR/JPY)

a one minute EUR/JPY chart

The currency pair EUR/JPY moved up 1st 2 minutes about 23 PIPS
Moved down for 13 minutes about 61 PIPS

(EUR/USD)

a one minute EUR/USD chart

The currency pair EUR/USD moved up 1st 2 minutes about 14 PIPS
Moved down for 13 minutes about 52 PIPS

(GBP/JPY)

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

The currency pair GBP/JPY moved up 1st 2 minutes about 26 PIPS
Moved down for 13 minutes about 57 PIPS

(GBP/USD)

a one minute GBP/USD chart

The currency pair GBP/USD moved up 1st 2 minutes about 14 PIPS
Moved down for 13 minutes about 42 PIPS

(USD/CAD)

a one minute USD/CAD chart

The currency pair USD/CAD moved down 1st 2 minutes about 20 PIPS
Moved up for 44 minutes about 80 PIPS

(USD/JPY)

a one minute USD/JPY chart

The currency pair USD/JPY moved up 1st minute about 9 PIPS
Moved down for 7 minutes about 22 PIPS
Moved up for 39 minutes about 49 PIPS

The next release of these reports will be on Tuesday, 08-31-10 at 10:00 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Past performances are not an indication of future results.

So—Stay tuned!

On Monday, 07-26-10 at 10:00 AM ET, the USD New Home Sales report was  released by the Census Bureau

I did a “preview” of these reports on Sunday, 07-25-10 at 10:00 AM ET, click here for a review.

Here is what happened:

USD – New Home Sales – Stats

Previous = 300K ————-revised = 267K

Forecast = 317K

Actual = 330K

I was looking for a 30K difference of the “actual” above or below the “forecast” as the point to enter my trade, which it did not – I did not entered a trade!!

Here is how I was set up and the results:

USD-10-00 AM-ET-07-26-10
Looking for a 30K difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD New Home Sales
——actual———-forecast——-previous
________________317K______300K
_____330K______ 317K______ 267K
Out at 287K or lower – BUY EUR/USD
Out at 347K  or higher- SELL EUR/USD
Good – “actual” came out higher then “forecast” by 13K
Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 30K
Good – “actual” came out higher then revised “previous” by 63K

I did not execute a trade this time!! Not enough difference!!

Here are the charts.

(EUR/JPY)

a one minute EUR/JPY chart

The EURJPY currency pair moved up for 16 minutes about 47 PIPS

(EUR/USD)

a one minute EUR/USD chart

The EUR/USD currency pair ranged up for 11 minutes about 12 PIPS
Moved down for 37 minutes about 28 PIPS

(GBP/JPY)

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

The GBP/JPY currency pair moved up 1st 4 minutes about 48 PIPS
ranged for about 16 minutes

(GBP/USD)

a one minute GBP/USD chart

The GBP/USD currency pair moved up 1st 3 minutes about 10 PIPS
Moved down for about 45 minutes about 50 PIPS

(USD/CAD)

a one minute USD/CAD chart

The USD/CAD currency pair moved down for 16 minutes about 31 PIPS
Moved up for about 31 minutes about 32 PIPS

(USD/JPY)

a one minute USD/JPY chart

The USD/JPY currency pair moved up for 16 minutes about 30 PIPS

The next schedule release of these reports will be on Wednesday, 08-25-10 at 10:00 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!

On Thursday, 07-28-10 at 8:30 AM ET, the Census Bureau will release the monthly reports USD Core Durable Goods Orders MoM and USD Durable Goods Orders MoM.

My last “follow up” post concerning these USD reports was on Thursday, 06-24-10, click here for a review.

Here is how the reports for this month are set up:

USD – Core Durable Goods Orders m/m – Stats

Previous = 1.6%

Forecast = 0.6%

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

USD-8-30AM-ET-07-28-10
Looking for a 1.5% difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
——actual——–forecast——–previous
______________0.6%________1.6%
out at -0.9% or lower – SELL USD/JPY
out at 2.1% or higher – BUY USD/JPY
USD Durable Goods Orders m/m
______________0.9%______  -0.6%

It appears that the economists believe that durable goods orders will show a increase over last month, but the core durable goods orders will decrease this time. A possible conflict!

The Core Durable Goods Orders appear to have the greatest impact on the currency market, but if they both do not come out moving in the same direction, either positive or negative, there can be a conflict, who knows what may happen then.

I did post a “follow up” report of the results, click here to see what happened.

The next scheduled release of these two reports on Wednesday, 08-25-10 at 8:30 AM ET.

Stay tuned!

On Thursday, 07-22-10 at 10:00 AM ET, a USD report was released, it was the USD Existing Home Sales report, released monthly by the National Association of Realtors.

This report was released alone with 3 others:

USD-HPI MoM
USD-CB Leading Index
EUR Consumer Confidence

I did a “preview” post on Wednesday, 07-21-10 for these reports, click here for a review.

Here are the stats for this month:

USD Existing Home Sales stats:

Previous = 5.66 M

Forecast = 5.15 M———-revised = 5.18 M

Actual = 5.37 M

This “forecast” indicated that there would be a decrease of home sales over last months sales, but it did not come out that way – there was an increase.

Here is how I was set up for these reports, and the results:

USD-10-00AM-ET-07-22-10
Looking for a 200K difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Existing Home Sales
——actual——–forecast———-previous
______________5.15M________5.66M
_____5.37M____ 5.18M
Out at 5.35M or Higher – BUY USD/CAD
Out at 4.95M or Lower- SELL USD/CAD
Good – “actual” came out higher then the “forecast” by 220K
Good – “actual” came out higher then the revised “forecast” by 190K
Bad – “actual” came out lower then the “previous” by 290K

I did execute a trade of the USD/CAD and it was a loser!

The currency pair USD/JPY would have been a better trade pair!

Let’s take a look at the charts and see how things worked out:

(EUR/JPY )

a one minute EUR/JPY chart

This EUR/JPY currency pair moved up for 17 minutes about 83 PIPS

(EUR/USD)

a one minute EUR/USD chart

This EUR/USD currency pair ranged for 15 minutes
Spiked up next minute about 40 PIPS – wrong direction

(GBP/JPY)

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

This GBP/JPY currency pair moved up for 17 minutes about 69 PIPS

(GBP/USD)

a one minute GBP/USD chart

This GBP/USD currency pair moved down for 15 minutes about 18 PIPS – right direction

(USD/CAD)

a one minute USD/CAD chart

This USD/CAD currency pair moved down for 17 minutes about 22 PIPS – wrong direction A losing trade!

(USD/JPY )

a one minute USD/JPY chart

This USD/JPY currency pair moved up for 15 minutes about 44 PIPS – right direction

The next scheduled release of this report will be Tuesday, 08-24-10 at 10:00 AM ET. A month is a long time, re-scheduling can occur any time.

I will probably be writing a “preview” post for this up-coming report.

So, stay tuned!

On Tuesday, 07-27-10, at 10:00 AM ET the USD Consumer Confidence report will be released.

The last “follow up” was posted on Tuesday, 07-06-10, click here for a review.

The Consumer Confidence  is released by The Conference Board, Inc.

Also, the Richmond Manufacturing Index will be released by The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond – released monthly.

The USD Consumer Confidence report appears to have a good impact on the FOREX market.

The last 2 releases I traded and won both times.

Lets take a look at what is going on with this news release:

USD Consumer Confidence Stats:

Previous = 52.9

Forecast = 51.5

The “forecast” implies that the economists may not be feeling positive about the future economy of the USA.

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

USD-10-00AM-ET-07-27-10
Looking for a 5.0 difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for the USD
USD CB Consumer Confidence
——actual——–forecast——–previous
______________51.5_________52.9
out at 56.5 or higher – BUY USD/JPY
out at 46.5 or lower – SELL USD/JPY

Again, I will be looking for a 5.0 difference between the “actual” report and the “forecast”, this time I will probably set up to trade the currency pair USD/JPY – if the “actual” is lower then “forecast” by 5.0 or more I will execute a “SELL” trade a minute or two after the  market has settled out. Of course, a “BUY” trade if the “actual” is higher then the “forecast”

Check out the last “follow up” report for an idea how the market reacts to the “actual” outcome of the report.

I did post a “follow up” soon after, click here to see what happened.

The next scheduled release of this report is on Tuesday, 07-31-10 at 10:00 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Past performances are not an indication of future results

So—Stay tuned!

Tomorrow, Monday, 07-26-10 at 10:00 AM ET, the USD New Home Sales monthly report will be released by the Census Bureau

I did a “follow up” of the last “preview” post of these reports on Sunday, 07-04-10, click here for a review.

Here is what is coming up tomorrow:

USD – New Home Sales – Stats

Previous = 300K

Forecast = 317K

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

USD-10-00AM-ET-07-26-10
Looking for a 30K difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD New Home Sales
——actual———-forecast——-previous
________________317K______300K
Out at 287K or lower – BUY EUR/USD
Out at 330K  or higher- SELL EUR/USD

Will the “New Home Sales” improve? We will see!!

Remember, what has happened in the past may not repeat itself under similar circumstances.

I did write a “follow up” post of these reports, click here to see what happened.

The next scheduled report is on Wednesday, 08-25-10 at 10:00 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!

On Friday, 07-16-10 at 9:55 AM and 10:AM ET the University of Michigan was releasing two monthly reports, Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations.

These were “preliminary” reports.

I did a “preview” of these reports on Thursday, 07-15-10, click here for a review.

Keep this in mind, most FOREX web sites that display a FOREX Calendar show this report as coming out at 10:00 AM ET instead of 9:55 AM.

I use FOREX Factory’s Calendar, FF has provided a button that can be used to acquire news reports at about the same time they are being released. Click here for the FOREX Factory calendar.

Lets see how the stats turned out for this report:

USD U. of Michigan Confidence Stats:

Previous = 76.0

Forecast =  74.1

Actual = 66.5

USD U. of Michigan Inflation Expectations Stats:

Previous = 2.8%

Forecast =

Actual = 2.9%

Keep in mind, some of the traders get the U of M reports at 9:55 AM ET and others do not get them until 10:00 AM ET.

Here is how I was set up and what happened:

USD-9-55AM-ET-07-16-10 PreLim
Looking for a 4.0 difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD U. of Michigan Confidence
____actual_____forecast_____previous
________________74.1_______76.0
______66.5______ 74.2_______ 76.0
Out at 78.1 or higher – SELL EUR/USD
Out at 70.1 or lower – BUY EUR/USD
Bad- “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 7.6
Bad- “actual” came out lower then revised “forecast” by 7.7
Bad- “actual” came out lower then “previous” by 9.5

Entered one trade of the currency pair EUR/USD – a loser!!

I should have traded the currency pair USD/JPY – next time!

Here are the charts:

(EUR/JPY)

a one minute EUR/JPY currency pair chart

The EUR/JPY currency pair at 7:55 AM-moved down for 2 minutes about 19 PIPS and ranged for 3 minutes
At 8:00 AM-moved down for 8 minutes about 52 PIPS then moved up

(EUR/USD)

a one minute EUR/USD currency pair chart

This currency pair EUR/USD currency pair at 7:55 AM-moved up 1st minute – then moved down next 4 minutes about 14 PIPS
At 8:00 AM-moved down for 12 minutes about 50 PIPS – wrong direction
A losing trade!!

(GBP/JPY)

a one minute GBP/JPYcurrency pair chart

This currency pair GBP/JPY currency pair at 7:55 AM-moved down 1st 2 minutes – moved up next 3 minutes
At 8:00 AM-moved down for 8 minutes about 55 PIPS

(GBP/USD)

a one minute GBP/USD currency pair chart

This currency pair GBP/USD currency pair at 7:55 AM-minor range up next 5 minutes
At 8:00 AM-moved down for 7 minutes about 36 PIPS- wrong direction

(USD/CAD)

a one minute USD/CAD currency pair chart

This currency pair USD/CAD currency pair at 7:55 AM-moved up next 5 minutes about 35 PIPS – wrong direction
At 8:00 AM-moved up for 8 minutes about 25 PIPS- wrong direction

(USD/JPY)

a one minute USD/JPY currency pair chart

This USD/JPY currency pair at 7:55 AM-moved down 3 minutes – moved up next 2 minutes
At 8:00 AM-moved down for 9 minutes about 21 PIPS- right direction

This report is next scheduled for release on Friday 08-13-10 at 9:55 and 10:00 AM ET.

I will probably be posting a “preview” of next months reports a day or two before.

Stay tuned!

On  Wednesday, 07-14-10 at 8:30 AM ET, the USD – Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales MoM reports was released.

These two reports are released monthly by the Census Bureau.

I did a “preview” post of this months news release, click here for a review.

The USD – Core Retail Sales MoM report is more attuned to what is currently happening in the economy – therefore it is the report that may have the greatest impact on the currency market.

Here is what happened this month:

USD – Core Retail Sales MoM stats

Previous = -1.1%————-revised = -1.2%

Forecast = -0.1%

Actual = -0.1%

USD – Retail Sales MoM stats

Previous = -1.2% ————-revised = -1.1%

Forecast = -0.2%

Actual = -0.5%

Here is how I was set up and what happened:

USD-8-30AM-ET-07-14-10
Looking for a 0.5 difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Core Retail Sales m/m
——actual——–forecast——–previous
_______________-0.1%______   -1.1%
_____-0.1%_____ -0.1%_______ -1.2%
out at 0.4% or better – SELL EUR/USD
out at -0.6% or less – BUY EUR/USD
Neutral – “actual” came out the same as “forecast”
Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 1.0%
Good – “actual” came out higher then revised “previous” by 1.1%

Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Retail Sales m/m
_______________-0.1%______ -1.2%
-0.5%           -0.2%             -1.1%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 0.4%
Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 0.7%
Good – “actual” came out higher then revised “previous” by 0.6%

Did Not Enter a Trade This Time – not enough difference!!

Here are the charts:

(EUR/JPY)

a one minute EUR/JPY chart

This currency pair EUR/JPY spiked down/up the 1st minute about 19 PIPS/ 26 PIPS
Moved up next 9 minutes about 24 PIPS
Moved down for 31 minutes about 69 PIPS

(EUR/USD)

a one minute EUR/USD chart

This currency pair EUR/USD moved up for 20 minutes about 26 PIPS
Moved down for 21 minutes about 47 PIPS

(GBP/JPY)

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

This currency pair GBP/JPY PIPS spiked down/up the 1st minute about 22 PIPS/ 29 PIPS
Moved up next 9 minutes about 30 PIPS
Moved down for 32 minutes about 80 PIPS

(GBP/USD)

a one minute GBP/USD chart

This currency pair GBP/USD moved up 1st 3 minutes about 24 PIPS
Ranged for 10 minutes
Moved down for 26 minutes about 42 PIPS

(USD/CAD)

a one minute USD/CAD chart

This currency pair USD/CAD moved down for 11 minutes about 20 PIPS
Moved up for 4 minutes about 17 PIPS
Moved down for 6 minutes about 15 PIPS

(USD/JPY)

a one minute USD/JPY chart

This currency pair USD/JPY spiked down/up the 1st minute about 14 PIPS/ 17 PIPS
Moved up next 9 minutes about 10 PIPS
Moved down for 38 minutes about 32 PIPS

The next time this will be released will be on Friday, 08-13-10 at 8:30 AM ET.

I will post a “preview” a day or 2 prior.

Stay tuned!

Tomorrow, Thursday, 07-22-10 at 10:00 AM ET one important USD report is to be released, this is the USD Existing Home Sales report, released monthly by the National Association of Realtors.

This report will be released alone with 3 others:

USD-HPI MoM
USD-CB Leading Index
EUR Consumer Confidence

I did not record the reports for the months of  April and May

I did a “follow up” post on the June reports, click here for a review.

Here are the stats for this month:

USD Existing Home Sales stats:

Previous = 5.66 M

Forecast = 5.15 M

This “forecast” indicates that there will be an decrease of home sales of about 51,000 homes over last months sales.

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

USD-10-00AM_ET-07-22-10
Looking for a 20K 200K difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Existing Home Sales
——actual——–forecast———-previous
______________5.15M________5.66M
Out at 5.35M or Higher – BUY USD/CAD
Out at 4.95M or Lower- SELL USD/CAD

I think that a good difference between the “actual” and the “forecast” of say 20K or more could present a brief “scalp” opportunity with the currency pair EUR/USD or the USD/CAD and perhaps some of the other currency pairs.

I did post a “follow up” on the results of this report, click here to see what happened.

The next release of theses reports will be on Tuesday, 08-24-10 at 10:00 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

So, stay tuned!