The Fundamental FOREX Blog » USD Preview

Preview – USD Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate reports

shark — Thu, 02 Feb 2012 16:09:13 +0000

Tomorrow the US will release the Unemployment Rate and the Non-Farm Employment Change – tomorrows reports have mixed forecasts – there could be conflict.

Want to add more options to your currency trading??

There is a series of e-books in the Kindle Book store on Amazon which deal with FOREX trading the economic news reports;

Currently these titles are available:

“Trade New Zealand Retail Sales Report – M over M – News Report” NEW
“Trade US Core Durable Goods Orders – News Report”
“Trade Australian Gross Domestic Product – Q over Q – News Report”
“Trade the British Gross Domestic Product – Q over Q – News Report”
“Trade Canadian IVEY Purchasing Mangers Index – M over M – News Report”

Click here FOREX Trade the News… What are the Odds?

Tomorrow, on Friday, 02-03-12 at 8:30 AM ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the monthly reports of the USD Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.

USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
Released monthly by Bureau of Labor Statistics

I did not trade in January

I did a “follow up” post for January release, click here for a review.

Here is how the reports are set up for this month:

USD Non-Farm Employment Change – Stats

Previous = 200K

Forecast = 153K

USD Unemployment Rate – Stats

Previous = 8.5%

Forecast = 8.5%

It appears that the economists believe that the Employment Change is not going to improve and that the Employment Rate is not going to be an improvement for the economy!

It is difficult for me to say which report will have the greatest impact on the market, some say that the Employment Change is the report that has the most impact.

I am going to watch both very carefully, hopefully they will come out in the same direction – Employment Change will improve and Unemployment Rate will go down, or a reversal of both.

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

USD-8-30AM-ET-02-03-12
Looking for a 100K difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Non-Farm Employment Change
——actual——–forecast——–previous
______________153K_______200K
out at 253K or higher – SELL EUR/USD
out at 53K or lower – BUY EUR/USD
USD Unemployment Rate
_______________8.5% ______8.5%
Actual < Forecast = Good for USD
0.2 diff. watch for conflict

I did post a “follow up” of these reports, click here to see what happened.

The next release of these reports is scheduled for Friday, 03-09-12 at 8:30 AM ET, I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!

P.S. If you are interested in how I set up for a news trade – click on the “Training” link above for some videos.

P.P.S. If you are interested in the books I studied and recommend – click on the “FOREX Books” link above.

Preview – USD ISM Manufacturing PMI report

shark — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 17:15:38 +0000

The US is releasing a report tomorrow morning, Wednesday, February, 1st at 10:00 AM ET, along with 2 other reports –

I did not enter a trade last time.

Want more options?? – Find out about FOREX News trading!

There is a series of e-books in the Kindle Book store on Amazon which deal with FOREX trading the economic news reports;

Currently these titles are available:

Click here FOREX Trade the News… What are the Odds?

Tomorrow, Wednesday, 02-01-12 at 10:00 AM ET the USD ISM Manufacturing PMI report will be released along with two other reports.

USD Construction Spending (MoM)
USD ISM Manufacturing Prices

USD ISM Manufacturing PMI has the greatest impact on the currency markets.

The USD ISM Manufacturing PMI is released by the Institute of Supply Management
and is released monthly,

and the Construction Spending is released by the Census Bureau and is released monthly.

And the USD ISM Manufacturing Prices is released by Institute for Supply Management.

I did a “follow up” post for last month, click here for a review.

I did not enter a trade last time.

Here is the set up for this month:

USD ISM Manufacturing PMI stats:

Previous = 53.9

Forecast = 54.6

The Manufacturing PMI as “forecast” shows a small increase for the US economy.

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

USD-10-00AM-ET-02-01-12
Looking for a Change of 2 to 3
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD ISM Manufacturing PMI
——actual——-forecast——-previous
_______________54.6_______53.9
out at 56.6 or higher – SELL EUR/USD
out at 52.6 or lower – BUY EUR/USD

Watch for a conflict with the USD ISM Manufacturing Prices “actual” report

I did post a “follow up” soon after, click here to see what happened.

I posted a video of a past release of this report, click here to see what happened:

The next scheduled release of the USD – Manufacturing PMI is Thursday, 03-01-12 at 11:00 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

So, stay tuned!

P.S. If you are interested in how I set up for a news trade – click on the “Training” link above for some videos.

P.P.S. If you are interested in the books I studied and recommend – click on the “FOREX Books” link above.

Preview – USD ADP Non- Farm Employment change report

shark — Tue, 31 Jan 2012 16:37:53 +0000

US Employment reports have become important indicators of the US economy over the last 2 years. The ADP Non-Farm Employment change is tomorrow – I have traded this report 7 times out of the last 22 months.

Did not trade last 2 months, even though there were good triggers.

It appears that the employment situation is not predicted to be improving.

Want to add more options to your currency trading??

There is a series of e-books in the Kindle Book store on Amazon which deal with FOREX trading the economic news reports;

Currently these titles are available:

Click here FOREX Trade the News… What are the Odds?

Tomorrow, Wednesday, 02-01-12 at 8:15 AM ET, the “USD ADP Non- Farm Employment change” will be released by Automatic Data Processing, Inc.

I did not enter a trade last time – even though there was a good trigger!

I did a “follow up” of the last months report, posted on Saturday, 01-07-12, click here for a review.

Let us check out what is happening tomorrow.

USD ADP Non- Farm Employment change stats:

Previous = 325K

Forecast = 189K

It appears that the employment situation is not improving.

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

USD-8-15AM-ET-02-01-12
Looking for a 50K difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
——actual———-forecast———-previous
________________189K________325K
out at 239K or higher – SELL GBP/USD
out at 139K or lower – BUY GBP/USD

I did post a “follow up” of this report, click here to see what happened.

The next ADP report is scheduled for Wednesday, 03-07-12 at 8:15 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

So – stay tuned!

P.S. If you are interested in how I set up for a news trade – click on the “Training” link above for some videos.

P.P.S. If you are interested in the books I studied and recommend – click on the “FOREX Books” link above.

Preview – USD Consumer Confidence report

shark — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 15:17:14 +0000

The US Consumer Confidence report is being released tomorrow (Tuesday).

The “forecasts” implies that the economists have this report showing a increase in the US economic confidence.

There was a good trade trigger last month – but no trade entry!

Want more options?? – Find out about FOREX News trading!

There is a series of e-books in the Kindle Book store on Amazon which deal with FOREX trading the economic news reports;

Currently these titles are available:

“Trade New Zealand Retail Sales Report – M over M – News Report” NEW
“Trade US Core Durable Goods Orders – News Report”
“Trade Australian Gross Domestic Product – Q over Q – News Report”
“Trade the British Gross Domestic Product – Q over Q – News Report”
“Trade Canadian IVEY Purchasing Mangers Index – M over M – News Report”

Click here FOREX Trade the News… What are the Odds?

Tomorrow, on Tuesday, 01-31-12, at 10:00 AM ET the USD Consumer Confidence report will be released.

Did not enter a trade last month even though there was a good trade trigger.

The last “follow up” of the Consumer Confidence report was posted on Thursday, 12-29-11, click here for a review.

The Consumer Confidence is released by The Conference Board, Inc.

The USD Consumer Confidence report appears to have a good impact on the FOREX market at times.

Lets take a look at what is going on with this news release:

USD Consumer Confidence Stats:

Previous = 64.5

Forecast = 68.2

The “forecasts” implies that the economists have this report showing a increase in the US economy.

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

USD-10-00AM-ET-01-31-12
Looking for a 5.0 difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for the USD
USD CB Consumer Confidence
——actual——–forecast——–previous
_______________68.2_________64.5
out at 73.2 or higher – BUY USD/JPY
out at 63.2 or lower – SELL USD/JPY

Check out the last “follow up” report for an idea how the market reacts to the “actual” outcome of the report.

I did post a “follow up” soon after, click here to see what happened.

The next scheduled release of this report is on Tuesday, 02-28-12 at 10:00 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Past performances are not an indication of future results

So—Stay tuned!

P.S. If you are interested in how I set up for a news trade – click on the “Training” link above for some videos.

P.P.S. If you are interested in the books I studied and recommend – click on the “FOREX Books” link above.

Preview – USD New Home Sales report

shark — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 16:24:08 +0000

New Homes sales are being released tomorrow by the US Census Bureau – I did not enter a trade last month.

Want more options?? – Find out about FOREX News trading!

There is a series of e-books in the Kindle Book store on Amazon which deal with FOREX trading the economic news reports;

Currently these titles are available:

Click here FOREX Trade the News… What are the Odds?

Tomorrow, Thursday, 01-26-12 at 10:00 AM ET, the USD New Home Sales monthly report will be released by the Census Bureau
One other report is being released as well:
USD CB Leading Index m/m
Released monthly by The Conference Board Inc.

I did not enter a trade last month for this report

I did a “follow up” of the last “preview” post of these reports on Sunday, 12-25-11, click here for a review.

Here is what is coming up tomorrow:

USD – New Home Sales – Stats

Previous = 315K

Forecast = 321K

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

USD-8-00-AM-ET-01-26-12
Looking for a 30K difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for the USD
USD New Home Sales
——actual———-forecast——previous
____________________321K _____315K
out at 351K or higher – BUY USD/JPY
out at 291K or lower – SELL USD/JPY

Remember, what has happened in the past may not repeat itself under similar circumstances.

I did post a “follow up” post of these reports, click here to see what happened.

The next scheduled report is on Friday, 02-24-12 at 11:00 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!

P.S. If you are interested in how I set up for a news trade – click on the “Training” link above for several videos.

P.P.S. If you are interested in the books I studied and recommend – click on the “FOREX Books” link above.

Preview – USD Core Durable Goods and Durable Goods Orders report

shark — Wed, 25 Jan 2012 15:44:08 +0000

Tomorrow there will be 2 economic news reports released, I will be monitoring – the US Core Durable Goods order and the Durable Goods order.

If both come out in the same direction and beyond the “forecast” far enough – a good trade may be the order of the day.

I did not enter a trade last month with this report.

Want more options?? – Find out about FOREX News trading!

There is a series of e-books in the Kindle Book store on Amazon which deal with FOREX trading the economic news reports;

Currently these titles are available:

Click here FOREX Trade the News… What are the Odds?

Tomorrow, Thursday, 01-26-12 at 8:30 AM ET, the Census Bureau will release the monthly reports USD Core Durable Goods Orders MoM and USD Durable Goods Orders MoM.

Also 1 other news release:

USD Unemployment Claims
Released monthly by the Department of Labor

I did not enter a trade last month!!

My last “follow up” post concerning these USD reports was on Saturday, 12-24-11, click here for a review.

Here is how the reports for this month are set up:

USD – Core Durable Goods Orders m/m – Stats

Previous = 0.3%

Forecast = 0.9%

USD – Durable Goods Orders m/m – Stats

Previous = 3.7%

Forecast = 2.1%

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

USD-8-30AM-ET-01-26-12
Looking for a 1.5% difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
——actual——–forecast——–previous
_______________0.9%________0.3%
out at 2.4% or higher – SELL GBP/USD
out at -0.6% or lower – BUY GBP/USD

It appears that the economists believe that durable goods orders and core durable goods orders are in conflict again this month, possible conflict – check the FOREX Calendars.

The Core Durable Goods Orders appear to have the greatest impact on the currency market, but if they both do not come out moving in the same direction, either positive or negative, there can be a conflict, who knows what may happen then.

I did post a “follow up” report of the results, click here to see what happened.

The next scheduled release of these two reports on Tuesday, 02-28-12 at 8:30 AM ET.

Stay tuned!

P.S. If you are interested in how I set up for a news trade – click on the “Training” link above for several videos.

P.P.S. If you are interested in the books I studied and recommend – click on the “FOREX Books” link above.

Preview – USD Existing Home Sales report

shark — Thu, 19 Jan 2012 15:52:33 +0000

Tomorrow, the US Existing Home Sales report will be released – this is normally a very good news release for trading.

There was a good trigger last month, did not enter a trade

Want more options?? – Find out about FOREX News trading!

There is a series of e-books in the Kindle Book store on Amazon which deal with FOREX trading the economic news reports;

Currently these titles are available:

Click here FOREX Trade the News… What are the Odds?

Tomorrow, Friday, 01-20-12 at 10:00 AM ET one important USD report is to be released, this is the USD Existing Home Sales report, released monthly by the National Association of Realtors.

There was a good trigger last month, did not enter a trade

I did a “follow up” post on the December report, click here for a review.

Here are the stats for this month:

USD Existing Home Sales stats:

Previous = 4.42 M

Forecast = 4.65 M

This “forecast” indicates that there will be a increase of home sales of about 23,000 homes over last months sales.

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

USD-10-00AM-ET-01-20-12
Looking for a 200K difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Existing Home Sales
——actual——–forecast———-previous
______________4.65M________4.42M
Out at 4.85M or Higher – SELL EUR/USD
Out at 4.45M or Lower – BUY EUR/USD

I think that a good difference between the “actual” and the “forecast” of say 200K or more could present a brief “scalp” opportunity with the currency pair EUR/USD currency pair.

I did post a “follow up” on the results of this report, click here to see what happened.

The next release of theses reports will be on Wednesday, 02-22-12 at 10:00 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

So, stay tuned!

P.S. If you are interested in how I set up for a news trade – click on the “Training” link above for some videos.

P.P.S. If you are interested in the books I studied and recommend – click on the “FOREX Books” link above.

Preview – USD – Core Retail Sales MoM and Retail Sales MoM

shark — Wed, 11 Jan 2012 16:01:55 +0000

At 8:30 AM ET tomorrow the USD – Core Retails Sales report is being released – this report should have some impact on the FOREX market.

Both Retail Sales reports are forecast as good for the US.

Want more options?? – Find out about FOREX News trading!

There is a series of e-books in the Kindle Book store on Amazon which deal with FOREX trading the economic news reports;

Currently these titles are available:

Click here FOREX Trade the News… What are the Odds?

Tomorrow, Thursday, 01-12-12 at 8:30 AM ET, the USD – Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales MoM reports will be released.

These two reports are released monthly by the Census Bureau.

Also, 3 other reports:

USD Unemployment Claims
Released weekly by the Department Of Labor

CAD NHPI m/m
Released monthly by Canada Statistics

EUR ECB Press Conference

I did not enter a trade last month – not enough difference!

I did a “follow up” post of last months news release, click here to see what happened.

The USD – Core Retail Sales MoM report is more attuned to what is currently happening in the economy – therefore it is the report that may have the greatest impact on the currency market. But – important they both go in the same direction.

Here is what is happening on Thursday, 01-12-12:

USD – Core Retail Sales MoM stats

Previous = 0.2%

Forecast = 0.3%

USD – Retail Sales MoM stats

Previous = 0.2%

Forecast = 0.3%

The economists believe the Retails Sales reports are improving the economy.

Both reports are forecast for improvement for the economy.

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

USD-8-30AM-01-12-12
Looking for a 0.5 difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Core Retail Sales m/m
——actual——–forecast——–previous
_______________0.3%______ 0.2%
out at 0.8% or better – SELL EUR/USD
out at -0.2% or less – BUY EUR/USD

Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Retail Sales m/m
_______________0.3%________ 0.2%

Also, pay attention to your “broker spread” when selecting currency pairs to trade.

I did post a “follow up” of this report soon after, click here to see what happened.

The next time this is scheduled to be released is on Tuesday, 02-14-12 at 8:30 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!

P.S. If you are interested in how I set up for a news trade – click on the “Training” link above for some videos.

P.P.S. If you are interested in the books I studied and recommend – click on the “FOREX Books” link above

Preview – USD Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate reports

shark — Thu, 05 Jan 2012 17:23:48 +0000

Tomorrow the US will release the Unemployment Rate and the Non-Farm Employment Change – tomorrows reports have mixed forecasts – there could be conflict.

Want to add more options to your currency trading??

There is a series of e-books in the Kindle Book store on Amazon which deal with FOREX trading the economic news reports;

Currently these titles are available:

Tomorrow, on Friday, 01-06-12 at 8:30 AM ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the monthly reports of the USD Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.

USD Non-Farm Employment Change
Released monthly by Bureau of Labor Statistics

USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
Released monthly by Bureau of Labor Statistics

I did not trade in December

I did a “follow up” post for December release, click here for a review.

Here is how the reports are set up for this month:

USD Non-Farm Employment Change – Stats

Previous = 120K

Forecast = 153K

USD Unemployment Rate – Stats

Previous = 8.6%

Forecast = 8.7%

It appears that the economists believe that the Employment Change is going to improve and that the Employment Rate is not going to be an improvement for the economy!

It is difficult for me to say which report will have the greatest impact on the market, some say that the Employment Change is the report that has the most impact.

I am going to watch both very carefully, hopefully they will come out in the same direction – Employment Change will improve and Unemployment Rate will go down, or a reversal of both.

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

USD-8:30AM-ET-01-06-12
Looking for a 100K difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Non-Farm Employment Change
——actual——–forecast——–previous
______________153K_______120K
out at 250K or higher – SELL EUR/USD
out at 53K or lower – BUY EUR/USD
USD Unemployment Rate
_______________8.7% ______8.6%
Actual < Forecast = Good for USD
0.2 diff. watch for conflict

I did post a “follow up” of these reports, click here to see what happened.

The next release of these reports is scheduled for Friday, 02-03-12 at 8:30 AM ET, I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!

P.S. If you are interested in how I set up for a news trade – click on the “Training” link above for some videos.

P.P.S. If you are interested in the books I studied and recommend – click on the “FOREX Books” link above.

Preview – USD ADP Non- Farm Employment change report

shark — Wed, 04 Jan 2012 15:19:43 +0000

It appears that the employment situation is not predicted to be improving.

Want to add more options to your currency trading??

There is a series of e-books in the Kindle Book store on Amazon which deal with FOREX trading the economic news reports;

Currently these titles are available:

Tomorrow, Thursday, 01-05-12 at 8:15 AM ET, the “USD ADP Non- Farm Employment change” will be released by Automatic Data Processing, Inc.

I did not enter a trade last time – even though there was a good trigger!

I did a “follow up” of the last months report, posted on Saturday, 12-03-11, click here for a review.

Let us check out what is happening tomorrow.

USD ADP Non- Farm Employment change stats:

Previous = 206K

Forecast = ~~117K~~ 176K

It appears that the employment situation is not improving.

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

USD-10:15AM-ET-01-05-12
Looking for a 50K difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
——actual———-forecast———-previous
________________~~117K~~_176K____206K
out at 227K or higher – SELL GBP/USD
out at ~~67K~~ 226K or lower – BUY GBP/USD

I did post a “follow up” of this report, click here to see what happened.

The next ADP report is scheduled for Wednesday, 02-01-12 at 8:15 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

So – stay tuned!

P.S. If you are interested in how I set up for a news trade – click on the “Training” link above for some videos.

P.P.S. If you are interested in the books I studied and recommend – click on the “FOREX Books” link above.