Follow Up GBP – Retail Sales MoM report


On Thursday, 07-22-09 at 4:30 AM ET, the GBP Retail Sales MoM report was released.

I posted a “preview” post of this report, click here to see what happened.

This report is released by the U.K.s National Statistics on a monthly basis.

For an idea how this report worked out, here is what happened:

GBP Retail Sales MoM stats:

previous = 0.6%————-revised = 0.8%

forecast = 0.5%

Actual = 0.7%

Here is how I was set up and what happened:

GBP-4-30AM-ET-07-22-10
Looking for a 1.0%  difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for GBP
GBP Retail Sales m/m
——actual——-forecast——-previous
_____________0.5%_______0.6%
______0.7%___ 0.5%______ 0.8%
Out at -0.5% or lower -  SELL GBP/CHF
Out at 1.5% or more -  BUY GBP/CHF

On retrace
Good – “actual” came out higher then “forecast” by 0.2%
Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 0.1%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then revised “previous” by 0.1%

Did not enter a trade this time!

Here are the charts:

(EUR/GBP)

a one minute EUR/GBP currency chart

a one minute EUR/GBP currency chart

This EUR/GBP currency pair moved down for  60 minutes about 27 PIPS – right direction

(EUR/JPY)

a one minute EUR/JPY currency chart

a one minute EUR/JPY currency chart

This EUR/JPY currency pair moved up for  32 minutes about 60 PIPS

(EUR/USD)

a one minute EUR/USD currency chart

a one minute EUR/USD currency chart

This EUR/USD currency pair moved up for  32 minutes about 23 PIPS

(GBP/CHF)

a one minute GBP/CHF currency chart

a one minute GBP/CHF currency chart

This GBP/CHF currency pair moved up 1st 2 minutes about 30 PIPS – right direction
Moved down next 2 minutes about 24 PIPS – wrong direction
Moved up next 16 minutes about 33 PIPS – right direction

(GBP/JPY)

a one minute GBP/JPY currency chart

a one minute GBP/JPY currency chart

This GBP/JPY currency pair moved up 32 minutes about 94 PIPS – right direction

(GBP/USD)

a one minute GBP/USD currency chart

a one minute GBP/USD currency chart

This GBP/USD currency pair moved up 32 minutes about 80 PIPS – right direction

The next scheduled release of these reports is on Friday, 08-20-10 at 4:30 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!

Follow up – USD University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations reports


On Friday, 07-16-10 at 9:55 AM and 10:AM ET the University of Michigan was releasing two monthly reports, Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations.

These were “preliminary” reports.

I did a “preview” of these reports on Thursday, 07-15-10, click here for a review.

Keep this in mind, most FOREX web sites that display a FOREX Calendar show this report as coming out at 10:00 AM ET instead of 9:55 AM.

I use FOREX Factory’s Calendar, FF has provided a button that can be used to acquire news reports at about the same time they are being released. Click here for the FOREX Factory calendar.

Lets see how the stats turned out for this report:

USD U. of Michigan Confidence Stats:

Previous = 76.0

Forecast =  74.1

Actual = 66.5

USD U. of Michigan Inflation Expectations Stats:

Previous = 2.8%

Forecast =

Actual = 2.9%

Keep in mind, some of the traders get the U of M reports at 9:55 AM ET and others do not get them until 10:00 AM ET.

Here is how I was set up and what happened:

USD-9-55AM-ET-07-16-10 PreLim
Looking for a 4.0 difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD U. of Michigan Confidence
____actual_____forecast_____previous
________________74.1_______76.0
______66.5______ 74.2_______ 76.0
Out at 78.1 or higher – SELL EUR/USD
Out at 70.1 or lower – BUY EUR/USD
Bad- “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 7.6
Bad- “actual” came out lower then revised “forecast” by 7.7
Bad- “actual” came out lower then “previous” by 9.5

Entered one trade of the currency pair EUR/USD – a loser!!

I should have traded the currency pair USD/JPY – next time!

Here are the charts:

(EUR/JPY)

a one minute EUR/JPY currency pair chart

a one minute EUR/JPY currency pair chart

The EUR/JPY currency pair at 7:55 AM-moved down for 2 minutes about 19 PIPS and ranged for 3 minutes
At 8:00 AM-moved down for 8 minutes about 52 PIPS then moved up

(EUR/USD)

a one minute EUR/USD currency pair chart

a one minute EUR/USD currency pair chart

This currency pair EUR/USD currency pair at 7:55 AM-moved up 1st minute – then moved down next 4 minutes about 14 PIPS
At 8:00 AM-moved down for 12 minutes about 50 PIPS – wrong direction
A losing trade!!

(GBP/JPY)

a one minute GBP/JPYcurrency pair chart

a one minute GBP/JPYcurrency pair chart

This currency pair GBP/JPY currency pair at 7:55 AM-moved down 1st 2 minutes – moved up next 3 minutes
At 8:00 AM-moved down for 8 minutes about 55 PIPS

(GBP/USD)

a one minute GBP/USD currency pair chart

a one minute GBP/USD currency pair chart

This currency pair GBP/USD currency pair at 7:55 AM-minor range up next 5 minutes
At 8:00 AM-moved down for 7 minutes about 36 PIPS- wrong direction

(USD/CAD)

a one minute USD/CAD currency pair chart

a one minute USD/CAD currency pair chart

This currency pair USD/CAD currency pair at 7:55 AM-moved up next 5 minutes about 35 PIPS – wrong direction
At 8:00 AM-moved up for 8 minutes about 25 PIPS- wrong direction

(USD/JPY)

a one minute USD/JPY currency pair chart

a one minute USD/JPY currency pair chart

This USD/JPY currency pair at 7:55 AM-moved down 3 minutes – moved up next 2 minutes
At 8:00 AM-moved down for 9 minutes about 21 PIPS- right direction

This report is next scheduled for release on Friday 08-13-10 at 9:55 and 10:00 AM ET.

I will probably be posting a “preview” of next months reports a day or two before.

Stay tuned!

Follow Up- USD – Core Retail Sales MoM and Retail Sales MoM


On  Wednesday, 07-14-10 at 8:30 AM ET, the USD – Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales MoM reports was released.

These two reports are released monthly by the Census Bureau.

I did a “preview” post of this months news release, click here for a review.

The USD – Core Retail Sales MoM report is more attuned to what is currently happening in the economy – therefore it is the report that may have the greatest impact on the currency market.

Here is what happened this month:

USD – Core Retail Sales MoM stats

Previous = -1.1%————-revised = -1.2%

Forecast = -0.1%

Actual = -0.1%

USD – Retail Sales MoM stats

Previous = -1.2% ————-revised = -1.1%

Forecast = -0.2%

Actual = -0.5%

Here is how I was set up and what happened:

USD-8-30AM-ET-07-14-10
Looking for a 0.5 difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Core Retail Sales m/m
——actual——–forecast——–previous
_______________-0.1%______   -1.1%
_____-0.1%_____ -0.1%_______ -1.2%
out at 0.4% or better – SELL EUR/USD
out at -0.6% or less – BUY EUR/USD

Neutral – “actual” came out the same as “forecast”
Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 1.0%
Good – “actual” came out higher then revised “previous” by 1.1%

Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Retail Sales m/m
_______________-0.1%______ -1.2%
-0.5%           -0.2%             -1.1%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 0.4%
Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 0.7%
Good – “actual” came out higher then revised “previous” by 0.6%

Did Not Enter a Trade This Time – not enough difference!!

Here are the charts:

(EUR/JPY)

a one minute EUR/JPY currency chart

a one minute EUR/JPY chart

This currency pair EUR/JPY spiked down/up the 1st minute about 19 PIPS/ 26 PIPS
Moved up next 9 minutes about 24 PIPS
Moved down for 31 minutes about 69 PIPS

(EUR/USD)

a one minute EUR/USD currency chart

a one minute EUR/USD chart

This currency pair EUR/USD moved up for 20 minutes about 26 PIPS
Moved down for 21 minutes about 47 PIPS

(GBP/JPY)

a one minute GBP/JPY currency chart

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

This currency pair GBP/JPY PIPS spiked down/up the 1st minute about 22 PIPS/ 29 PIPS
Moved up next 9 minutes about 30 PIPS
Moved down for 32 minutes about 80 PIPS

(GBP/USD)

a one minute GBP/USD currency chart

a one minute GBP/USD chart

This currency pair GBP/USD moved up 1st 3 minutes about 24 PIPS
Ranged for 10 minutes
Moved down for 26 minutes about 42 PIPS

(USD/CAD)

a one minute USD/CAD currency chart

a one minute USD/CAD chart

This currency pair USD/CAD moved down for 11 minutes about 20 PIPS
Moved up for 4 minutes about 17 PIPS
Moved down for 6 minutes about 15 PIPS

(USD/JPY)

a one minute USD/JPY currency chart

a one minute USD/JPY chart

This currency pair USD/JPY spiked down/up the 1st minute about 14 PIPS/ 17 PIPS
Moved up next 9 minutes about 10 PIPS
Moved down for 38 minutes about 32 PIPS

The next time this will be released will be on Friday, 08-13-10 at 8:30 AM ET.

I will post a “preview” a day or 2 prior.

Stay tuned!

Preview CAD – Core Consumer Price Index MoM and Consumer Price Index MoM reports

Tomorrow, Friday, 07-23-10 at 7:00 AM ET, The CAD – Core Consumer Price Index MoM and the CAD – Consumer Price Index MoM will be released.

These 2 reports are stand alone this time.

The CAD – Core Consumer Price Index MoM and the CAD – Consumer Price Index MoM appear to have a good impact on the FOREX market.

The 2 Consumer reports are released by Statistics Canada

I did a “follow up” post of last months reports – click here for a review.

Here is how things look for tomorrow:

CAD Core Consumer Price Index (MoM) Stats

previous = 0.3%

forecast = 0.1%

CAD Consumer Price Index (MoM) Stats

previous = 0.3%

forecast = -0.2%

The “forecast” for either of the Consumer Price Index reports shows that the economists are not in favor of the Canadian economy improving.

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

CAD-7-00AM-ET-07-23-10
Looking for a 0.3% difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for CAD
CAD Core Consumer Price Index (MoM)
——actual———forecast——–previous
________________0.1%________0.3%
out at 0.4% or higher – SELL GBP/CAD
out at -0.2% or lower- BUY GBP/CAD

CAD CPI m/m
_______________-0.2%_________ 0.3%
Watch for both reports to go in same direction
Watch for 3 minute reversal

It really helps if both reports move in concert. Watch out for conflict.

I did post a “follow up” of this report soon after, click here to see what happened.

The next scheduled release of these reports is Friday, 08-20-10 at 7:00 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!

Follow up GBP – Claimant Count Change and Unemployment Rate reports


On Wednesday, 07-14-10 at 4:30 AM ET, the GBP Claimant Count Change and ILO Unemployment Rate were released.

These two reports were released with one other economic news report -

GBP Average Earnings index

I did a “preview” post of this months reports, click here for a review.

Both of those reports are released by the U.K.s National Statistics on a monthly basis.

I did not enter a trade this time, – not enough difference!!!

Here is the set up for this month:

GBP Claimant Count Change stats:

previous = -30.9K————–revised = -31.1K

forecast = -20.1K

Actual = -20.8K

GBP ILO Unemployment Rate stats:

previous = 7.9%

forecast = 7.9%

Actual = 7.8%

Here is how I was set up and what happened:

GBP-4-30AM-ET-07-14-10
Looking for a 20K difference
Actual < Forecast = Good for GBP
GBP Claimant Count Change
—-actual——–forecast———-previous
_____________-20.1K_______-30.9K
___-20.8K____ -20.1K_______ -31.1K
out at -00.2K or higher – SELL – GBP/USD
out at -40.2K or lower – BUY – GBP/USD

Good – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 0.7K
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “previous” by 10.1K

GBP Unemployment Rate
Actual < Forecast = Good for GBP
——actual———-forecast———-previous
_____7.8%________7.9%________7.9%
Good – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 0.1%
Good – “actual” came out lower then “previous” by 0.1%

GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
____________3.1%_______ 4.2%
____2.7%____  3.1%_______ 4.1%

Here are the charts:

(EUR/GBP)

a one minute EUR/GBP currency pair

a one minute EUR/GBP currency pair

This EUR/GBP currency pair spiked up/down 1st minute about 16 PIPS/ 4 PIPS
Ranged for 6 minutes
Moved up for 3 minutes about 7 PIPS
Moved down for 23 minutes about 11 PIPS

(EUR/JPY)

a one minute EUR/JPY currency pair

a one minute EUR/JPY currency pair

This EUR/JPY currency pair moved down for 60 minutes about 37 PIPS

(EUR/USD)

a one minute EUR/USD currency pair

a one minute EUR/USD currency pair

This EUR/USD currency pair moved down for 33 minutes about 24 PIPS

(GBP/CHF)

a one minute GBP/CHF currency pair

a one minute GBP/CHF currency pair

This GBP/CHF currency pair spiked up/down 1st minute about 35 PIPS/ 13 PIPS
Ranged for 7 minutes
Moved down for 6 minutes about 13 PIPS
Moved up for 11 minutes about 19 PIPS

(GBP/JPY)

a one minute GBP/JPY currency pair

a one minute GBP/JPY currency pair

This GBP/JPY currency pair spiked up/down 1st minute about 34 PIPS/ 12 PIPS
Moved down for 41 minutes about 40 PIPS

(GBP/USD)

a one minute GBP/USD currency pair

a one minute GBP/USD currency pair

This GBP/USD currency pair spiked up/down 1st minute about 35 PIPS/ 10 PIPS
Moved down for 43 minutes about 33 PIPS

The next release of these two reports will be Wednesday, 08-11-10 at 4:30 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two before.

Stay tuned!

Preview – USD Existing Home Sales report


Tomorrow, Thursday, 07-22-10 at 10:00 AM ET one important USD report is to be released, this is the USD Existing Home Sales report, released monthly by the National Association of Realtors.

This report will be released alone with 3 others:

USD-HPI MoM
USD-CB Leading Index
EUR Consumer Confidence

I did not record the reports for the months of  April and May

I did a “follow up” post on the June reports, click here for a review.

Here are the stats for this month:

USD Existing Home Sales stats:

Previous = 5.66 M

Forecast = 5.15 M

This “forecast” indicates that there will be an decrease of home sales of about 51,000 homes over last months sales.

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

USD-10-00AM_ET-07-22-10
Looking for a 20K 200K difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Existing Home Sales
——actual——–forecast———-previous
______________5.15M________5.66M
Out at 5.35M or Higher – BUY USD/CAD
Out at 4.95M or Lower- SELL USD/CAD

I think that a good difference between the “actual” and the “forecast” of say 20K or more could present a brief “scalp” opportunity with the currency pair EUR/USD or the USD/CAD and perhaps some of the other currency pairs.

I did post a “follow up” on the results of this report, click here to see what happened.

The next release of theses reports will be on Tuesday, 08-24-10 at 10:00 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

So, stay tuned!

Preview – CAD – Retail Sales MoM and Core Retail Sales MoM reports


Tomorrow, Thursday, 07-22-10 at 8:30 AM ET, two Canadian reports will be released

CAD Retails Sales MoM
CAD Core Retail Sales MoM

These reports are being released with a USD report this time!

USD Unemployment Claims

Released weekly by the Department of Labor

I posted a “follow up” post of last months reports on Saturday, 07-03-10, click here for a review.

Canada’s “Statistics Canada”  release these monthly reports.

It appears that the “Retail Sales” report has a little more impact for traders than the “Core Retail Sales“. But, it is good if they both move in the same direction.

Here is the set up tomorrow for the CAD “Retail Sales” reports:

CAD – Retail Sales MoM stats
Previous = -2.0%

Forecast = 0.5%

CAD – Core Retail Sales MoM stats
Previous = -1.2%

Forecast = 0.5%

If both reports come out in the same direction and are greater than the “forecast”, either positive or negative by say 1.5% or more, the market should have a good move over time.

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

CAD-8-30AM-ET-07-22-10
Looking for a 1.5% difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for CAD
CAD Retail Sales m/m
——actual———-forecast——previous
________________0.5%______-2.0%
out at -1.0% or lower – SELL CAD/JPY
out at 2.0% or higher – BUY CAD/JPY

CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
________________0.5%________-1.2%

It appears that both reports are forecast an increase in retail sales.

I did post a “follow up” soon after, click here to see what happened.

The next release for these 2 reports is scheduled for Tuesday, 08-24-10 at 8:30AM ET.

Some times the reports scheduling can be changed.

Anyway, I will probably be writing a “preview” post for next months reports.

Stay tuned!

Preview GBP – Retail Sales MoM report


Tomorrow, Thursday, 07-22-10 at 4:30 AM ET, the GBP Retail Sales MoM report will be released.

I posted a “follow up” report of last months report, click here to see what happened.

This Retail Sales report is released by the U.K.s National Statistics on a monthly basis.

Here is what is going on tomorrow:

GBP Retail Sales MoM stats:

previous = 0.6%

forecast = 0.5%

The “forecast” for this report shows a possibility of a progressive down turn of the GBP economy.

Here is how I am set up for this report:

GBP-4-30AM-ET-07-22-10
Looking for a 1.0%  difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for GBP
GBP Retail Sales m/m
——actual——-forecast——-previous
_____________0.5%_______0.6%
Out at -0.5% or lower -  SELL GBP/CHF
Out at 1.5% or more -  BUY GBP/CHF

On retrace??

The last 3 reports have failed to have enough difference of 1.0% for me to enter a trade, however, last report release showed a 0.5% difference and the market moved nicely in the “right direction” – the GBP/USD had the best movement.

I did post a “follow up” soon after this news report was over, click here to see what happened.

The next scheduled release of this report is on Friday, 08-20-10 at 4:30 AM ET!

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!

Follow Up – NZD Retail Sales m/m and NZD Core Retail Sales m/m reports


On Tuesday, 07-13-10 at 6:45 PM ET, the New Zealand Statistics released the monthly NZD Retail Sales m/m and NZD Core Retail Sales m/m reports

I wrote a “preview” post of this report, click here to see a review.

Did not enter a trade – not enough difference!!

Here is what happened this month:

NZD Retail Sales m/m – Stats

Previous = -0.3%

Forecast = 0.6%

Actual = 0.4%

NZD Core Retail Sales m/m – Stats

Previous = -0.2%

Forecast = 0.6%

Actual = -0.2%

Here is how I was set up and what happened:

NZD 6-45PM-ET-07-13-10
Looking for a 1.0 Difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for NZD
NZD Retail Sales m/m   high spread
——actual———-forecast——–previous
_____0.4%________0.6%______-0.3%
out at 1.6% or higher – SELL – EUR/NZD
out at -0.6% or lower – BUY – EUR/NZD
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 0.2%

Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 0.7%

NZD Core Retail Sales m
_______-0.2%______0.6% ______-0.2%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 0.8%
Neutral – “actual” came out same as “previous”

Here are the charts:

(AUD/NZD)

a one minute AUD/NZD currency chart

a one minute AUD/NZD chart

This currency pair AUD/NZD moved up 1st 3 minutes about 42 PIPS – RD
Moved down next 18 minutes about 17 PIPS – WD
Ranged!

(EUR/NZD)

a one minute EUR/NZD currency chart

a one minute EUR/NZD chart

This currency pair EUR/NZD moved up 1st 3 minutes about 65 PIPS – RD
Moved down next 27 minutes about 42 PIPS – WD

(NZD/CAD)

a one minute NZD/CAD currency chart

a one minute NZD/CAD chart

This currency pair NZD/CAD moved down 1st 3 minutes about 24 PIPS – RD
Moved up next 16 minutes about 14 PIPS – WD
Ranged!

(NZD/JPY)

a one minute NZD/JPY currency chart

a one minute NZD/JPY chart

This currency pair NZD/JPY moved down 1st 3 minutes about 24 PIPS – RD
Ranged for 11 minutes
Moved up next 5 minutes about 14 PIPS – WD

(NZD/USD)

a one minute NZD/USD currency chart

a one minute NZD/USD chart

This currency pair NZD/USD moved down 1st 3 minutes about 26 PIPS – RD
Moved up next 16 minutes about 16 PIPS – WD
Ranged!

The next scheduled release of these two reports on Thursday, 08-12-10 at 6:45 PM ET.

I will probably post a “preview“ a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!

Follow Up – EUR German ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment and EUR – EURO-Zone ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment reports


On Tuesday, 07-13-10 at 5:00 AM ET, the EUR German ZEW Survey  Economic Sentiment and EUR – EURO-Zone ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment reports were released.

One other economic report was also being released:

GBP CB Leading Index m/m

The EUR reports are released by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW)

And the GBP CB Leading Indicator is released monthly by the the Conference Board Inc.

I did a “preview” post of this months report, click here for a review.

The EUR – German ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment appears to have the greatest impact on the market.

Here is the set up:

EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment Stats:

previous = 28.7

forecast = 25.2

actual = 21.1

EUR EURO-Zone ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment Stats:

previous = 18.8

forecast = 16.8

actual = 10.7

Here is how I was set up and what happened:

EUR-3-00AM-07-13-10
Looking for a 10.0 difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for EUR
EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment
——actual———-forecast———-previous
_____21.1__________25.2________28.7
Out at 15.2 or less SELL EUR/USD
Out at 35.2 or more BUY EUR/USD
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 4.1
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “previous” by 7.6

EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment
_____10.7__________ 16.8________ 18.8
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 6.1
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “previous” by 8.1

I did not execute any trades this time – not enough difference!!

Here are the charts:

(EUR/CHF)

a one minute EUR/CHF currency chart

a one minute EUR/CHF chart

This EUR/CHF currency pair ranged for 17 minutes
Moved up for 13 minutes about 25 PIPS

(EUR/GBP)

a one minute EUR/GBP currency chart

a one minute EUR/GBP chart

This EUR/GBP currency pair moved down 1st minute about 9 PIPS
Ranged for 37 minutes

(EUR/JPY)

a one minute EUR/JPY currency chart

a one minute EUR/JPY chart

This EUR/JPY currency pair ranged for 17 minutes
Moved up next 14 minutes about 35 PIPS

(EUR/USD)

a one minute EUR/USD currency chart

a one minute EUR/USD chart

This EUR/USD currency pair spiked down/up 1st minute about 12 PIPS/ 10 PIPS
Minor move down next 2 minutes
Moved up next 56 minutes about 55 PIPS

(GBP/JPY)

a one minute GBP/JPY currency chart

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

This GBP/JPY currency pair moved up for 31 minutes about 65 PIPS

(GBP/USD)

a one minute GBP/USD currency chart

a one minute GBP/USD chart

This GBP/USD currency pair  continued move up

The next reports are scheduled for Tuesday, 08-17-10 at 5:00 AM ET, I have noticed lately that schedules are sometimes changed during the time periods between scheduled reports.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!