The Fundamental FOREX Blog

On  Friday, 08-13-10 at 8:30 AM ET, the USD – Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales MoM reports was released.

These two reports are released monthly by the Census Bureau.

Along with these USD reports, there are 3 other reports:

USD Core CPI m/m
USD CPI m/m
Released monthly by the “Bureau of Labor Statistics”

CAD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m
Released  monthly by “Statistics Canada”,

I did a “preview” post of this months news release, click here for a review.

The USD – Core Retail Sales MoM report is more attuned to what is currently happening in the economy – therefore it is the report that may have the greatest impact on the currency market.

Here is what happened this month:

USD – Core Retail Sales MoM stats

Previous = -0.1%

Forecast = 0.3%

Actual = 0.2%

USD – Retail Sales MoM stats

Previous = -0.5% ————-revised = -0.3%

Forecast = 0.5%

Actual = 0.4%

Here is how I was set up and what happened:

USD-8-30AM-ET-08-13-10
Looking for a 0.5 difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Core Retail Sales m/m
——actual——–forecast——–previous
_____0.2%______0.3%______   -0.1%
out at 0.8% or better – SELL EUR/USD
out at -0.2% or less – BUY EUR/USD
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast“ by 0.1%
Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous“ by 0.3%

Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Retail Sales m/m
________________0.5%______ -0.5%
_____0.4%______ 0.5%______ -0.3%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast“ by 0.1%
Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous“ by 0.9%
Good – “actual” came out higher then revised “previous“ by 0.7%

Did Not Enter a Trade This Time – not enough difference!!

Here are the charts:

(EUR/JPY)

a one minute EUR/JPY chart

This currency pair EUR/JPY spiked up/down the 1st 2 minutes about 13 PIPS/ 24 PIPS
Moved up next 16 minutes about 53 PIPS

(EUR/USD)

a one minute EUR/USD chart

This currency pair EUR/USD spiked up/down the 1st 2 minutes about 8 PIPS/ 25 PIPS
Moved up next 6 minutes about 36 PIPS – RD

(GBP/JPY)

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

This currency pair GBP/JPY PIPS spiked up/down the 1st 3 minutes about 19 PIPS/ 23 PIPS
Moved up next 10 minutes about 51 PIPS

(GBP/USD)

a one minute GBP/USD chart

This currency pair GBP/USD spiked up/down the 1st 2 minutes about 8 PIPS/ 17 PIPS
Moved up next 6 minutes about 31 PIPS – RD

(USD/CAD)

a one minute USD/CAD chart

This currency pair USD/CAD spiked up/down/up the 1st minute about 5 PIPS/ 13 PIPS/ 8 PIPS
Moved up next 2 minutes about 13 PIPS – WD
Moved down next 57 minutes about 47 PIPS – RD

(USD/JPY)

a one minute USD/JPY chart

This currency pair USD/JPY minor spike up/down for 6 minutes
Moved up next 7 minutes about 18 PIPS – WD

The next time this will be released will be on Tuesday, 09-14-10 at 8:30 AM ET.

I will post a “preview” a day or 2 prior.

Stay tuned!