The Fundamental FOREX Blog

On Friday, 07-16-10 at 9:55 AM and 10:AM ET the University of Michigan was releasing two monthly reports, Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations.

These were “preliminary” reports.

I did a “preview” of these reports on Thursday, 07-15-10, click here for a review.

Keep this in mind, most FOREX web sites that display a FOREX Calendar show this report as coming out at 10:00 AM ET instead of 9:55 AM.

I use FOREX Factory’s Calendar, FF has provided a button that can be used to acquire news reports at about the same time they are being released. Click here for the FOREX Factory calendar.

Lets see how the stats turned out for this report:

USD U. of Michigan Confidence Stats:

Previous = 76.0

Forecast =  74.1

Actual = 66.5

USD U. of Michigan Inflation Expectations Stats:

Previous = 2.8%

Forecast =

Actual = 2.9%

Keep in mind, some of the traders get the U of M reports at 9:55 AM ET and others do not get them until 10:00 AM ET.

Here is how I was set up and what happened:

USD-9-55AM-ET-07-16-10 PreLim
Looking for a 4.0 difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD U. of Michigan Confidence
____actual_____forecast_____previous
________________74.1_______76.0
______66.5______ 74.2_______ 76.0
Out at 78.1 or higher – SELL EUR/USD
Out at 70.1 or lower – BUY EUR/USD
Bad- “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 7.6
Bad- “actual” came out lower then revised “forecast” by 7.7
Bad- “actual” came out lower then “previous” by 9.5

Entered one trade of the currency pair EUR/USD – a loser!!

I should have traded the currency pair USD/JPY – next time!

Here are the charts:

(EUR/JPY)

a one minute EUR/JPY currency pair chart

The EUR/JPY currency pair at 7:55 AM-moved down for 2 minutes about 19 PIPS and ranged for 3 minutes
At 8:00 AM-moved down for 8 minutes about 52 PIPS then moved up

(EUR/USD)

a one minute EUR/USD currency pair chart

This currency pair EUR/USD currency pair at 7:55 AM-moved up 1st minute – then moved down next 4 minutes about 14 PIPS
At 8:00 AM-moved down for 12 minutes about 50 PIPS – wrong direction
A losing trade!!

(GBP/JPY)

a one minute GBP/JPYcurrency pair chart

This currency pair GBP/JPY currency pair at 7:55 AM-moved down 1st 2 minutes – moved up next 3 minutes
At 8:00 AM-moved down for 8 minutes about 55 PIPS

(GBP/USD)

a one minute GBP/USD currency pair chart

This currency pair GBP/USD currency pair at 7:55 AM-minor range up next 5 minutes
At 8:00 AM-moved down for 7 minutes about 36 PIPS- wrong direction

(USD/CAD)

a one minute USD/CAD currency pair chart

This currency pair USD/CAD currency pair at 7:55 AM-moved up next 5 minutes about 35 PIPS – wrong direction
At 8:00 AM-moved up for 8 minutes about 25 PIPS- wrong direction

(USD/JPY)

a one minute USD/JPY currency pair chart

This USD/JPY currency pair at 7:55 AM-moved down 3 minutes – moved up next 2 minutes
At 8:00 AM-moved down for 9 minutes about 21 PIPS- right direction

This report is next scheduled for release on Friday 08-13-10 at 9:55 and 10:00 AM ET.

I will probably be posting a “preview” of next months reports a day or two before.

Stay tuned!