The Fundamental FOREX Blog

On  Wednesday, 07-14-10 at 8:30 AM ET, the USD – Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales MoM reports was released.

These two reports are released monthly by the Census Bureau.

I did a “preview” post of this months news release, click here for a review.

The USD – Core Retail Sales MoM report is more attuned to what is currently happening in the economy – therefore it is the report that may have the greatest impact on the currency market.

Here is what happened this month:

USD – Core Retail Sales MoM stats

Previous = -1.1%————-revised = -1.2%

Forecast = -0.1%

Actual = -0.1%

USD – Retail Sales MoM stats

Previous = -1.2% ————-revised = -1.1%

Forecast = -0.2%

Actual = -0.5%

Here is how I was set up and what happened:

USD-8-30AM-ET-07-14-10
Looking for a 0.5 difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Core Retail Sales m/m
——actual——–forecast——–previous
_______________-0.1%______   -1.1%
_____-0.1%_____ -0.1%_______ -1.2%
out at 0.4% or better – SELL EUR/USD
out at -0.6% or less – BUY EUR/USD
Neutral – “actual” came out the same as “forecast”
Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 1.0%
Good – “actual” came out higher then revised “previous” by 1.1%

Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Retail Sales m/m
_______________-0.1%______ -1.2%
-0.5%           -0.2%             -1.1%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 0.4%
Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 0.7%
Good – “actual” came out higher then revised “previous” by 0.6%

Did Not Enter a Trade This Time – not enough difference!!

Here are the charts:

(EUR/JPY)

a one minute EUR/JPY chart

This currency pair EUR/JPY spiked down/up the 1st minute about 19 PIPS/ 26 PIPS
Moved up next 9 minutes about 24 PIPS
Moved down for 31 minutes about 69 PIPS

(EUR/USD)

a one minute EUR/USD chart

This currency pair EUR/USD moved up for 20 minutes about 26 PIPS
Moved down for 21 minutes about 47 PIPS

(GBP/JPY)

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

This currency pair GBP/JPY PIPS spiked down/up the 1st minute about 22 PIPS/ 29 PIPS
Moved up next 9 minutes about 30 PIPS
Moved down for 32 minutes about 80 PIPS

(GBP/USD)

a one minute GBP/USD chart

This currency pair GBP/USD moved up 1st 3 minutes about 24 PIPS
Ranged for 10 minutes
Moved down for 26 minutes about 42 PIPS

(USD/CAD)

a one minute USD/CAD chart

This currency pair USD/CAD moved down for 11 minutes about 20 PIPS
Moved up for 4 minutes about 17 PIPS
Moved down for 6 minutes about 15 PIPS

(USD/JPY)

a one minute USD/JPY chart

This currency pair USD/JPY spiked down/up the 1st minute about 14 PIPS/ 17 PIPS
Moved up next 9 minutes about 10 PIPS
Moved down for 38 minutes about 32 PIPS

The next time this will be released will be on Friday, 08-13-10 at 8:30 AM ET.

I will post a “preview” a day or 2 prior.

Stay tuned!