The Fundamental FOREX Blog

On  Friday, 06-11-10 at 8:30 AM ET, the USD – Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales MoM reports were released.

These two reports are released monthly by the Census Bureau.

I did a “preview” post of this months news release, click here for a review.

The USD – Core Retail Sales MoM report is more attuned to what is currently happening in the economy – therefore it is the report that may have the greatest impact on the currency market.

Here is what happened this month:

USD – Core Retail Sales MoM stats

Previous = 0.4%————-revised = 0.6%

Forecast = 0.1%

Actual = -1.1%

USD – Retail Sales MoM stats

Previous = 0.4% ————-revised = 0.6%

Forecast = 0.2%

Actual = -1.2%

Here is how I was set up and what happened:

USD-8-30AM-ET-06-11-10
Looking for a 0.5 difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Core Retail Sales m/m
——actual——–forecast——–previous
_______________0.1%______   0.4%
____-1.1% ______0.1%_______ 0.6%
out at 0.6% or better – SELL EUR/USD
out at -0.4% or less – BUY EUR/USD
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 1.2%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “previous” by 1.5%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then revised “previous” by 1.7%

Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Retail Sales m/m
_______________0.2%______ 0.4%
______-1.2%____ 0.2% ______0.6%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 1.4%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “previous” by 1.6%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then revised “previous” by 1.8%

Did Not Enter a Trade This Time!!

Here are the charts:

(EUR/JPY)

a one minute EUR/JPY chart

This currency pair EUR/JPY moved down for 29 minutes about 83 PIPS

(EUR/USD)

a one minute EUR/USD chart

This currency pair EUR/USD moved down for 7 minutes about 34 PIPS – wrong direction
moved up for 14 minutes about 30 PIPS – right direction

(GBP/JPY)

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

This currency pair GBP/JPY moved down for 34 minutes about  140 PIPS

(GBP/USD)

a one minute GBP/USD chart

This currency pair GBP/USD moved down for 34 minutes about 90 PIPS – wrong direction

(USD/CAD)

a one minute USD/CAD chart

This currency pair USD/CAD moved up for 35 minutes about 66 PIPS – wrong direction

(USD/JPY)

a one minute USD/JPY chart

This currency pair USD/JPY spiked down/up 1st 2 minutes about 45 PIPS/ 16 PIPS
Moved down for 27 minutes about 20 PIPS – right direction

The next time this will be released will be on Wednesday, 07-14-10 at 8:30 AM ET.

I will post a “preview” a day or 2 prior.

Stay tuned!