The Fundamental FOREX Blog

On Monday, 06-07-10 at 6:00 AM ET. The EUR – German Factory Orders MoM was released.

The German Factory Orders reports are released on a monthly basis by Deutsche Bundesbank.

Click here to see this months “preview” post of this report.

I had made a mistaken trade with the currency pair EUR/USD

Here is what happened:

EUR – German Factory Orders MoM stats:

Previous = 5.0%————–revised= 5.1%

Forecast = -0.1%

Actual = 2.8%

Here is how I was set up and what happened:

EUR-6-00AM-ET-06-07-10
Looking for a 1.3 difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for EUR
EUR German Factory Orders m/m
——actual——–forecast——–previous
______________-0.1%_______5.0%
_____2.8%_____ -0.1%______ 5.1%
Out at -1.4% or lower – SELL EUR/USD
Out at 1.2% or higher – BUY EUR/USD
Good – “actual” came out higher then “forecast” by 2.9%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “previous” by 2.2%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then revised “previous” by 2.3%

Here are the charts:

(EUR/CHF)

a one minute EUR/CHF chart

This currency pair EUR/CHF currency pair small move down 1st 2 minutes then move up for 8 minutes about 8 PIPS – right direction
Moved down next 21 minutes about 29 PIPS – wrong direction

(EUR/GBP)

a one minute EUR/GBP chart

This currency pair EUR/GBP- currency pair small move up 1st 3 minutes
Moved down next 50 minutes about 40 PIPS – wrong direction

(EUR/JPY)

a one minute EUR/JPY chart

This currency pair EUR/JPY- currency pair ranged for 8 minutes
Moved up next 15 minutes about 30 PIPS – right direction
Moved down next 30 minutes about 29 PIPS – wrong direction

(EUR/USD)

a one minute EUR/USD chart

This currency pair EUR/ USD – currency pair minor move up/down 1st minute – mistaken “neutral” trade
Moved down next 6 minutes about 11 PIPS – wrong direction
Moved up next 17 minutes about 25 PIPS – right direction

(GBP/JPY)

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

This currency pair GBP/JPY- currency pair ranged for 8 minutes
Moved up next 45 minutes about 62 PIPS – right direction

(GBP/USD)

a one minute GBP/USD chart

This currency pair GBP/USD currency pair moved down for 2 minutes about 9 PIPS – wrong direction
Ranged for 6 minutes
Moved up next 45 minutes about 40 PIPS – right direction

The next scheduled release of this report is on Wednesday, 07-07-10 at 6:00 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Remember, “Past performances are not an indication of future results!

Stay tuned!