The Fundamental FOREX Blog

On Monday, 05-31-10, at 9:30 PM ET the AUD Retail Sales m/m report was released.

Also, the AUD Building Approvals report was released.

I did a “preview” post of these reports on Monday, 05-31-10, click here to check it out.

The AUD Retail Sales m/m and Building Approvals reports are released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Lets take a look at what happened:

AUD Building Approvals m/m Stats:

Previous = 15.3%———–revised = 16.8%

Forecast = -4.9%———–revised =  -5.2%

Actual = -14.8%

AUD Retail Sales m/m Stats:

Previous = 0.3%———–revised = 0.4%

Forecast = 0.3%———–revised = 0.8%

Actual = 0.6%

I did not enter a trade – too much possible conflict!

Here is how I was set up and what happened:

AUD-9-30PM-05-31-10
Looking for a 1.0% difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for AUD
AUD Building Approvals m/m
——actual———-forecast———-previous
________________-4.9%________15.3%
____-14.8% ______-5.2% _______16.8%
Out at -3.9% or higher – SELL EUR/AUD
Out at -5.9% or lower – BUY EUR/AUD
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 9.9%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then revised “forecast” by 9.6%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “previous” by 30.1%

AUD Retail Sales m/m
________________0.3% ________0.3%
_____0.6%_______ 0.4%________ 0.8%
Good – “actual” came out higher then “forecast” by 0.3%
Good – “actual” came out higher then revised “forecast” by 0.2%
Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 0.3%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then revised “previous” by 0.2%

The reports were in conflict!

Here are the charts:

(AUD/JPY)

a one minute AUD/JPY currency chart

This AUD/JPY currency pair spiked down/up/down 1st minute about 3 PIPS/ 36 PIPS/ 25 PIPS
Moved up for 3 minutes about 19 PIPS - wrong direction
Move down next 13 minutes about 62 PIPS - right direction

(AUD/NZD)

a one minute AUD/NZD currency chart

This AUD/NZD currency pair spiked up/down/up 1st minute about 29 PIPS/ 47 PIPS/ 12 PIPS
Move down next 29 minutes about 30 PIPS – right direction

(AUD/USD)

a one minute AUD/USD currency chart

This AUD/USD currency pair spiked down/up/down 1st minute about 8 PIPS/ 29 PIPS/ 18 PIPS
Moved up for 3 minutes about 17 PIPS – wrong direction
Move down next 14 minutes about 52 PIPS – right direction

(EUR/AUD)

a one minute EUR/AUD currency chart

This EUR/AUD currency pair spiked up/down/up 1st minute about 15 PIPS/ 43 PIPS/ 28 PIPS
Moved up for 3 minutes about 22 PIPS – wrong direction
Move down next 13 minutes about 72 PIPS – right direction

The next scheduled release of AUD – Building Approvals report is on Thursday, 07-01-10 at 9:30 PM ET.

The next scheduled release of AUD – Retails Sales report is on Wednesday, 06-30-10 at 9:30 PM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Past performances are not an indication of future results

I will write a “follow up” post soon after this release.

So—Stay tuned!