The Fundamental FOREX Blog

On Friday, 05-21-10 at 8:30 AM ET, two Canadian reports were released

CAD Retails Sales MoM
CAD Core Retail Sales MoM

I posted a “preview” post on Thursday, 05-20-10, click here for a review.

Canada’s “Statistics Canada”  release these monthly reports.

It appears that the “Retail Sales” report has a little more impact for traders than the “Core Retail Sales“.

Here is what happened when the “Retail Sales” and “Core Retail Sales” reports were released:

CAD – Retail Sales MoM stats
Previous = 0.5%———–revised = 0.8%

Forecast = 0.2%

Actual = 2.1%

CAD – Core Retail Sales MoM stats
Previous = -0.1%———–revised = 0.0%

Forecast = 0.5%

Actual = 1.7%

Here is how I was set up and the results:

CAD-8-30AM-ET-05-21-10
Looking for a 1.5% difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for CAD
CAD Retail Sales m/m
——actual———-forecast——previous
________________0.2%______0.5%
______2.1%______ 0.2%_____ 0.8%
out at -1.3% or lower – SELL CAD/JPY
out at 1.7% or higher – BUY CAD/JPY
Good – “actual” came out higher then “forecast” by 1.9%
Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 1.6%
Good – “actual” came out higher then revised “previous” by 1.3%

CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
_______________0.5%________-0.1%
_______1.7%___ 0.5%_________ 0.0%
Good – “actual” came out higher then “forecast” by 1.2%
Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 1.8%
Good – “actual” came out higher then revised “previous” by 1.7%

Executed 4 trades with currency pair CAD/JPY
Two winners, two losers

Check out the charts:

(CAD/JPY)

a one minute CAD/JPY chart

This CAD/JPY currency pair ranged for 15 minutes
Moved up next 15 minutes about 39 PIPS – right direction
Two winners, two losers

(EUR/CAD)

a one minute EUR/CAD chart

This EUR/CAD currency pair moved down/up next 1st minute about 28 PIPS/ 32 PIPS
ranged next 19 minutes

(GBP/CAD)

a one minute GBP/CAD chart

This GBP/CAD currency pair spiked down/up 1st minute about 31 PIPS/ 40 PIPS
Moved up next 10 minutes about 40 PIPS – wrong direction

(USD/CAD)

a one minute USD/CAD chart

This USD/CAD currency pair spiked down/up 1st minute about 23 PIPS/ 26 PIPS
Moved up next 3 minutes about 19 PIPS – wrong direction
Moved down next 24 minutes about 42 PIPS – right direction

The next time these reports are scheduled to be released is on Wednesday, 06-23-10 at 8:30AM ET.

Some times report scheduling can be changed.

Chances are I will post a “preview” of these reports a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!