The Fundamental FOREX Blog

On Thursday, 05-11-10 at 4:30 AM ET the GBP Industrial Production MoM and YoY, and Manufacturing Production MoM and YoY reports were released.

These two reports were standing alone at this time.

On Monday, 05-10-10, I wrote a “preview” post of this months set up, click here for a review.

The Industrial Production reports appear to have the greatest impact on the currency markets, but the impact can be even greater if the Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production both come out moving in the same direction which is what happened this time.

Had a winning trade of the currency pair GBP/JPY

These reports are released by the UK National Statistics Publication Hub.

Here is how it was set up for 05-11-10:

GBP – Industrial Production MoM stats:

Previous = 1.0%—————-revised = 0.9%

Forecast = 0.3%

Actual = 2.0%

Manufacturing Production MoM stats:

Previous = 1.3%—————-revised = 1.4%

Forecast = 0.3%

Actual = 2.3%

Here is how I was set up and what happened:

GBP-4-30AM-ET-05-11-10
Looking for a 0.4% difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for GBP
GBP Industrial Production (MoM)
——actual———-forecast——-previous
________________0.3%_______1.0%
_____2.0%_______ 0.3%______ 0.9%
Out at 0.6% or higher – BUY GBP/JPY
Out at -0.2%  or lower- SELL GBP/JPY
Good – “actual” came out higher then “forecast” by 1.7%
Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 1.0%
Good – “actual” came out higher then revised “previous” by 1.1%

GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
________________0.3%________ 1.3%
_____2.3%_______ 0.3%________ 1.4%
Watch for conflict       Trade against it??
Good – “actual” came out higher then “forecast” by 2.0%
Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 1.0%

Here are the charts:

(EUR/GBP)

a one minute EUR/GBP chart

At the report release, this EUR/GBP currency pair spiked up/down 1st minute about 20 PIPS/12 PIPS
Ranged for 21 minutes

(EUR/JPY)

a one minute EURJPY chart

At the report release, this EUR/JPY currency pair moved up 1st 8 minutes about 21 PIPS
Moved down next 19 minutes about 75 PIPS

(EUR/USD)

a one minute EUR/USD chart

At the report release, this EUR/USD currency pair  ranged up/down 1st 11 minutes about 10 PIPS
Moved down next 17 minutes about 59 PIPS

(GBP/CHF)

a one minute GBP/CHF chart

At the report release, this GBP/CHF currency pair spiked up/down 1st minute about 39 PIPS/22 PIPS
Moved down next 13 minutes about 48 PIPS – wrong direction

(GBP/JPY)

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

At the report release, this GBP/JPY currency pair moved up 1st 3 minutes about 30 PIPS - right direction
Ranged for 6 minutes
Moved down next 17 minutes about 65 PIPS – wrong direction
Had a winning trade of this currency pair

(GBP/USD)

a one minute GBP/USD chart

At the report release, this GBP/USD currency pair spiked up/down 1st minute about 30 PIPS/19 PIPS
Ranged for 7 minutes
Moved down next 17 minutes about 41 PIPS – wrong direction

The next scheduled release of this report will be on Tuesday, 06-08-10 at 4:30 AM ET.

I will probably write a “preview” post a day or two before.

Stay tuned!