The Fundamental FOREX Blog

On Tuesday, 03-30-10, at 10:00AM ET the USD Consumer Confidence report was  released along with one other US economic news release.

USD – Richmond Manufacturing Index

The Consumer Confidence appears to have the greatest impact on the economy.

The last “preview” was posted on Monday, 02-22-10, click here for a review.

The Consumer Confidence  is released by The Conference Board, Inc.

The USD – Richmond Manufacturing Index is released monthly by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

Lets take a look at what is going on with this news release:

USD Consumer Confidence Stats:

Previous = 46.0———– revised = 46.4

Forecast = 50.1

Actual = 52.5

The “forecast” implies that the economists may be feeling better about the future economy of the USA.

Here is how I was set up, and the results:

USD-8-00AM-03-30-10
Looking for a 5.0 difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for the USD
USD CB Consumer Confidence
——actual———-forecast———-previous
________________50.1_________46.0
_____52.5_______ 50.1_________ 46.4
out at 55.1 or higher – BUY USD/JPY
out at 45.1 or lower – SELL USD/JPY
Good – “actual” came out higher then “forecast” by 2.4
Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 6.5
Good – “actual” came out higher then revised “previous” by 6.1

no trade this time – not enough difference – 3 possible currency pair trades – USD/CAD – GBP/USD – EUR/USD

I had set to trade the currency pair USD/JPY with a 5.0 difference between the “actual” and the “forecast”.

Well, the “actual” did not come out greater then the 5.0 difference – so, no trade.

Check out the charts.

(EUR/JPY)

a one minute EUR/JPY chart

The currency pair EUR/JPY moved up 1st 3 minutes about 13 PIPS
Move down  for 18 minutes about 37 PIPS

(EUR/USD)

a one minute EUR/USD chart

The currency pair EUR/USD moved up 1st 2 minutes about 15 PIPS
Move down  for 26 minutes about 30 PIPS – right direction

(GBP/JPY)

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

The currency pair GBP/JPY moved up 1st 3 minutes about 30 PIPS
Move down  next 20 minutes about 49 PIPS

(GBP/USD)

a one minute GBP/USD chart

The currency pair GBP/USD spiked up 1st 2 minutes about 33 PIPS – wrong direction
Move down  next 13 minutes about 34 PIPS – right direction

(USD/CAD)

a one minute USD/CAD chart

The currency pair USD/CAD minor range for 8 minutes
Moved up next 52 minutes about 35 PIPS - right direction

(USD/JPY)

a one minute USD/JPY chart

The currency pair USD/JPY minor range for 3 minutes
Moved down next 5 minutes about 13 PIPS – wrong direction
Range for 12 minutes
Moved up next 40 minutes about 28 PIPS – right direction

The next release of these reports will be on Tuesday, 04-27-10 at 10:00 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Past performances are not an indication of future results.

So—Stay tuned!