On Friday, 03-12-10 at 9:55 AM and 8:AM ET the University of Michigan was releasing two monthly reports, USD Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations.
These were “preliminary” reports.
I did a “preview” of these reports on Thursday, 03-11-10, click here for a review.
Keep this in mind, most FOREX web sites that display a FOREX Calendar show this report as coming out at 10:00 AM ET instead of 9:55 AM.
I use FOREX Factory’s Calendar, FF has provided a button that can be used to acquire news reports at about the same time they are being released. Click here for the FOREX Factory calendar.
Lets see how the stats turned out for this report:
USD U. of Michigan Confidence Stats:
Previous = 73.6
Forecast = 74.0
Actual = 72.5
USD U. of Michigan Inflation Expectations Stats:
Previous = 2.7%
Forecast =
Actual = 2.8%
Keep in mind, some of the traders get the U of M reports at 9:55 AM ET and others do not get them until 10:00 AM ET.
Here is how I was set up and what happened:
USD-9-55 and 10:00 AM ET-03-12-10 PreLim
Looking for a 4.0 difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD U. of Michigan Confidence
____actual_____forecast_____previous
_____72.5_______74.0________73.6
Out at 78.0 or higher – BUY EUR/USD
Out at 70.0 or lower – SELL EUR/USD
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 1.5
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “previous” by 1.1
No trade this time – USD/JPY moved the best at 32 PIPS
Here are the charts:
(EUR/JPY)
a one minute EUR/JPY currency chart
The EUR/JPY currency pair at 9:55 AM-moved down 1st 2 minutes about 10 PIPS – ranged next 3 minutes
At 10:00 AM-moved down for 21 minutes about 45 PIPS
(EUR/USD)
a one minute EUR/USD currency chart
This currency pair EUR/USD at 9:55 AM ET-minor move up to the 10:00 AM release
At 10:00 AM-moved down for 4 minutes about 22 PIPS – wrong direction
Ranged!
(GBP/JPY)
a one minute GBP/JPY currency chart
This currency pair GBP/JPY at 9:55 AM-moved down 1st 2 minutes moved up next 3 minutes
At 10:00 AM-moved down for 21 minutes about 50 PIPS
Ranged!
(GBP/USD)
a one minute GBP/USD currency chart
This currency pair GBP/USD at 9:55 AM-moved up for 5 minutes about 14 PIPS
At 10:00 AM-moved down for 19 minutes about 25 PIPS – wrong direction
Ranged!
(USD/CAD)
a one minute USD/CAD currency chart
This currency pair USD/CAD at at 9:55 AM-moved up for 4 minutes about 8 PIPS
Moved down next minute about 6 PIPS
At 10:00 AM-moved down 1st minute about 3 PIPS
Moved up next 19 minutes about 23 minutes – wrong direction
(USD/JPY)
a one minute USD/JPY currency chart
This USD/JPY currency pair 9:55 AM-moved down for 2 minutes about 9 PIPS
Ranged next 3 minutes
At 10:00 AM-moved down for 50 minute about 32 PIPS – right direction
I did not trade this time!
This report is next scheduled for release on Friday 04-16-10 at 9:55 and 10:00 AM ET.
I will probably be posting a “preview” of next months reports a day or two before.
Stay tuned!
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