The Fundamental FOREX Blog

On  Friday, 03-12-10 at 8:30 AM ET, the USD – Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales MoM reports was released.

These two reports, along with the USD Retail Sales Ex. Auto and Gas report are released monthly by the Census Bureau.

I did a “preview” post of this months news release, click here for a review.

The USD – Core Retail Sales MoM report is more attuned to what is currently happening in the economy – therefore it is the report that may have the greatest impact on the currency market.

Here is what happened this month:

USD – Core Retail Sales MoM stats

Previous = 0.6%————-revised = 0.5%

Forecast = 0.1%

Actual = 0.8%

USD – Retail Sales MoM stats

Previous = 0.5% ————-revised = 0.1%

Forecast = -0.1%

Actual = 0.3%

Here is how I was set up and what happened:

USD-6-30AM-03-12-10
Looking for a 0.5 difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Core Retail Sales m/m
——actual——–forecast——–previous
_______________0.1%______   0.6%
_____0.8%______ 0.1%______ 0.5%
out at 0.6% or better – SELL EUR/USD
out at -0.4% or less – BUY EUR/USD
Good – “actual” came out higher then the “forecast” by 0.7%
Good – “actual” came out higher then the “previous” by 0.2%

Good – “actual” came out higher then the revised “previous” by 0.3%

USD Retail Sales m/m
______0.3%________-0.1%________0.5%
______0.3%_____________________0.1%
Good – “actual” came out higher then the “forecast” by 0.4%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then the “previous” by 0.2%
Good – “actual” came out higher then the revised “previous” by 0.2%

executed three trades of the EUR/USD currency pair – one lose – 2 wins

Best currency pair for a trade this time – USD/JPY

Here are the charts:

(EUR/JPY)

a one minute EUR/JPY chart

This currency pair EUR/JPY moved up 1st 5 minutes about 49 PIPS
Ranged!

(EUR/USD)

a one minute EUR/USD chart

This currency pair EUR/USD moved down for 12 minutes about 27 PIPS – right direction – 3 trades – 1 lose, 2 wins
Ranged!

(GBP/JPY)

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

This currency pair GBP/JPY moved up for 8 minutes about 57 PIPS
Ranged!

(GBP/USD)

a one minute GBP/USD chart

This currency pair GBP/USD moved down for 11 minutes about 29 PIPS – right direction

(USD/CAD)

a one minute USD/CAD chart

This currency pair USD/CAD ranged!

(USD/JPY)

a one minute USD/JPY chart

This currency pair USD/JPY moved up for 8 minutes about 46 PIPS -right direction
Ranged!

The next time this will be released will be on Wednesday, 04-14-10 at 8:30 AM ET.

I will post a “preview” a day or 2 prior.

Stay tuned!