The Fundamental FOREX Blog

On Thursday, 03-11-10 at 4:45 PM ET, the New Zealand Statistics released the monthly NZD Retail Sales m/m and NZD Core Retail Sales m/m reports

This was my first post for these two reports, they were stand alone economic reports.

I wrote a “preview” post of this report, click here to see a review.

The last time these two reports were released was on Thursday, 02-11-10 at 4:45 PM ET.

No trade was executed for this report!

Here is what happened this month:

NZD Retail Sales m/m – Stats

Previous = 0.0%

Forecast = 0.3%———–revised = 0.4%

Actual = 0.8%

NZD Core Retail Sales m/m – Stats

Previous = -1.8%

Forecast = 0.6%———–revised = 0.7%

Actual = 0.3%

Here is how I was set up and what happened:

NZD 2-45PM-03-11-10
Looking for a 1.0 Difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for NZD
NZD Retail Sales m/m
——actual———-forecast———-previous
________________0.3%________0.0%
_____0.8%_______ 0.4%_______ 0.0%
out at 1.3% or higher – BUY – NZD/USD
out at -0.7% or lower – SELL – NZD/USD
Good – “actual” came out higher then “forecast” by 0.5%
Good – “actual” came out higher then revised “forecast” by 0.4%
Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 0.8%

NZD Core Retail Sales m/m
_________________0.6% ______-1.8%
______0.3%______ 0.7%_______ -1.8%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 0.3%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then revised “forecast” by 0.4%
Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 2.1%

Here are the charts:

(AUD/NZD)

a one minute AUD/NZD chart

This currency pair AUD/NZD spike down/up/down 1st minute about 12 PIPS/ 30 PIPS/ 11 PIPS
Moved up the next 54 minutes about 39 PIPS – wrong direction

(EUR/NZD)

a one minute EUR/NZD chart

This currency pair EUR/NZD spike down/up/down 1st minute about 20 PIPS/ 44 PIPS/ 12 PIPS
Moved up the next 55 minutes about 55 PIPS – wrong direction

(NZD/CAD)

a one minute NZD/CAD chart

This currency pair NZD/CAD spike up/down/up 1st minute about 7 PIPS/ 19 PIPS/ 6 PIPS
Moved down the next 54 minutes about 22 PIPS – wrong direction

(NZD/JPY)

a one minute NZD/JPY chart

This currency pair NZD/JPY spike up/down/up 1st minute about 7 PIPS/ 17 PIPS/ 6 PIPS
Moved down the next 55 minutes about 18 PIPS – wrong direction

(NZD/USD)

a one minute NZD/USD chart

This currency pair NZD/USD spike up/down/up 1st minute about 7 PIPS/ 18 PIPS/ 6 PIPS
Moved down the next 55 minutes about 22 PIPS – wrong direction

Looks like the currency pair EUR/NZD had the best move.

Judging from how the market moved when these reports were released – the NZD Core Retail Sales m/m appears to have a greater influence on the FOREX market – so, next release I will pay more attention to the “Core” report

The next scheduled release of these two reports is on Tuesday, 04-13-10 at 6:45 PM ET.

I will probably post a “preview“ a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!