On Wednesday, 03-01-10, at 7:30 PM ET the AUD Retail Sales m/m report was released.
Also, the AUD Building Approvals report was released.
I did a “preview” post of this AUD Retail Sales report on Monday, 03-01-10, click here to check it out.
The AUD Retail Sales m/m and Building Approvals reports are released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
Lets take a look at what happened:
AUD Retail Sales m/m Stats:
Previous = 2.2%———–revised = 5.2%
Forecast = 0.6%———–revised = 0.7%
Actual = -0.7%
AUD Building Approvals MoM came out – I have noticed that the FOREX traders seem to be paying some additional attention to real estate related news reports.
So I was paying attention to how that comes out – I was hopeful both reports would be going in the same direction, which they did not – I did enter 2 trades and both were losers.
Here is how I was set up and what happened:
AUD-5-30PM-03-01-10
Looking for a 1.0% difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for AUD
AUD Building Approvals m/m
——actual———-forecast———-previous
_____-7.0%______0.6% ________2.2%
_____-7.0% ______0.7% _______5.2%
Out at 1.6% or higher – BUY AUD/JPY
Out at -0.4% or lower – SELL AUD/JPY
Bad – “actual” came out lower the “forecast” by 7.6%
Bad – “actual” came out lower the revised “forecast” by 7.7%
Bad – “actual” came out lower the “previous” by 9.2%
Bad – “actual” came out lower the revised “previous” by 12.2%
AUD Retail Sales m/m
________________1.0% ________-0.7%
______1.2% ______0.8%_______ -0.9%
Good – “actual” came out higher then “forecast” by 0.2%
Good – “actual” came out higher then revised “forecast” by 0.4%
Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 1.9%
Good – “actual” came out higher then revised “previous” by 2.1%
Obvious conflict here – I failed to pick up on it!!!
Here are the charts:
(AUD/JPY)
a one minute AUD/JPY currency chart
This AUD/JPY currency pair spike down/up/down 1st minute about 1 PIP/ 30 PIPS/ 27 PIPS
Move up next 10 minutes about 15 PIPS – ???? direction
(AUD/NZD)
a one minute AUD/NZD currency chart
This AUD/NZD currency pair spike up/down/up 1st minute about 20 PIP/ 36 PIPS/ 15 PIPS
Move up next 18 minutes about 16 PIPS – ???? direction – losing trades here
I entered 3 trades again this time with this currency pair and lost all three – this is the third time I have traded this news report but with a different currency pair – all 3 times I was a loser. I am going to re-evaluate this news report.
(the 3rd trade was by accident – it taught me something about my trading platform!)
Perhaps the “real estate” report is affecting the market more then “retail sales”.
(AUD/USD)
a one minute AUD/USD currency chart
This AUD/USD currency pair spike up/down/up 1st minute about 31 PIP/ 39 PIPS/ 5 PIPS
Move up next 10 minutes about 22 PIPS - ???? direction
(EUR/AUD)
a one minute EUR/AUD currency chart
This EUR/AUD currency pair spike down/up/down 1st minute about 45 PIP/ 52 PIPS/ 5 PIPS
Move down next 56 minutes about 42 PIPS – ???? direction
The next scheduled release of this report is on Tuesday, 03-30-10 at 7:30 PM ET.
I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.
Past performances are not an indication of future results
I will write a “follow up” post soon after this release.
So—Stay tuned!
