On Thursday, 02-25-10 at 8:30 AM ET, the Census Bureau released the monthly reports USD Core Durable Goods Orders MoM and USD Durable Goods Orders MoM.
My “preview” post concerning these reports was on Wednesday, 02-24-10, click here for a review.
This months scheduled release involved 2 other news reports as well.
USD – Initial Jobless Claims
USD – Continuing Jobless Claims
Released weekly by the Department of Labor.
Here is how the reports for this month were set up and the results:
USD – Core Durable Goods Orders m/m – Stats
Previous = 1.4%_______ revised = 2.0%
Forecast = 1.1%
Actual = -0.6%
USD – Durable Goods Orders m/m – Stats
Previous = 1.0%_______ revised = 1.9%
Forecast = 1.6%
Actual = 3.0%
USD – Initial Jobless Claims – Stats
Previous = 473K________ revised = 474K
Forecast = 461K
Actual = 496K
USD – Continuing Jobless Claims – Stats
Previous = 4563K_______ revised = 4611K
Forecast = 4570K
Actual = 4617K
Here is how I was set up and what happened:
USD-6-30AM-02-25-10
Looking for a 1.5% difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
——actual———-forecast———-previous
________________1.1%________1.4%
_____-0.6% ______1.1% ________2.0%
out at 1.6% or higher – BUY USD/JPY
out at -0.4% or lower – SELL USD/JPY
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 1.7%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “previous” by 2.0%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then revised “previous” by 2.6%
Actual < Forecast = Good for USD
USD Unemployment Claims 50K
________________461K________473K
_______496K____ 461K________ 474K
Watch Un Claims to go in same way
Bad – “actual” came out higher then “forecast” by 35K
Bad – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 23K
Bad – “actual” came out higher then revised “previous” by 22K
There were so many of the reports coming out against the US economy – so it was not difficult getting a handle on where the markets might go – so….
I did enter 2 trades – both winners.
Here are the charts:
(EUR/JPY)
a one minute EUR/JPY chart
This EUR/JPY currency pair moved down 1st 3 minutes about 68 PIPS
Moved up next 14 minutes about 40 PIPS
Moved down next 17 minutes about 58 PIPS
(EUR/USD)
a one minute EUR/USD chart
This EUR/USD currency pair moved down 1st 3 minutes about 20 PIPS – wrong direction
Moved up next 14 minutes about 40 PIPS – right direction
Moved down next 17 minutes about 39 PIPS – wrong direction
(GBP/JPY)
a one minute GBP/JPY chart
This GBP/JPY currency pair moved down 1st 3 minutes about 82 PIPS
Ranged for 27 minutes
(GBP/USD)
a one minute GBP/USD chart
This GBP/USD currency pair moved down for 10 minutes about 36 PIPS - wrong direction
Moved up for 7 minutes about 29 PIPS – right direction
(USD/CAD)
a one minute USD/CAD chart
This USD/CAD currency pair continued in the same direction!
(USD/JPY)
a one minute USD/JPY chart
This USD/JPY currency pair moved down 1st 3 minutes 37 PIPS – right direction – entered 2 trades, both winners
Ranged next 27 minutes
The next scheduled release of these reports is on Thursday, 03-24-10 at 7:30 AM ET.
I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.
Stay tuned!
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