On Friday, 02-12-10 at 9:55 AM ET the University of Michigan was releasing two monthly reports, Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations.
These were “preliminary” reports.
I did a “preview” of these reports on Thursday, 02-11-10, click here for a review.
Keep this in mind, most FOREX web sites that display a FOREX Calendar show this report as coming out at 10:00 AM ET instead of 9:55 AM.
I use FOREX Factory’s Calendar, FF has provided a button that can be used to acquire news reports at about the same time they are being released. Click here for the FOREX Factory calendar.
Lets see how the stats turned out for this report:
USD U. of Michigan Confidence Stats:
Previous = 74.4
Forecast = 74.8————-revised = 74.7
Actual = 73.7
USD U. of Michigan Inflation Expectations Stats:
Previous = 2.8%
Forecast =
Actual = 2.7%
Keep in mind, some of the traders get the U of M reports at 9:55 AM ET and others do not get them until 10:00 AM ET.
Here is how I was set up and what happened:
USD-9-55AM ET-02-12-10 PreLim
Looking for a 4.0 difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD U. of Michigan Confidence
____actual_____forecast_____previous
_____73.7_______74.7________74.4
Out at 78.7 or higher – BUY EUR/USD
Out at 70.7 or lower – SELL EUR/USD
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 1.1
Bad – “actual” came out lower then revised “forecast” by 1.0
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “previous” by 0.7
Here are the charts:
a one minute EUR/JPY currency pair chart
The EUR/JPY currency pair at 9:55 AM ET-moved up 1st 5 minutes about 38 PIPS
At 10:00 AM ET-moved down for 5 minutes about 30 PIPS
Moved up next 13 minutes about 48 PIPS
a one minute EUR/USD currency pair chart
This currency pair EUR/USD at 9:55 AM ET-moved up 1st 2 minutes about 40 PIPS
Ranged next 3 minutes
At 10:00 AM ET-moved down for 5 minutes about 20 PIPS – wrong direction
Moved up next 14 minutes about 40 PIPS – right direction
a one minute GBP/JPYcurrency pair chart
This currency pair GBP/JPY at 9:55 AM ET-moved up 1st 5 minutes about 30 PIPS
At 10:00 AM ET-moved down for 5 minutes about 40 PIPS
Moved up next 5 minutes about 55 PIPS
a one minute GBP/USD currency pair chart
This currency pair GBP/USD at 9:55 AM ET-moved up 1st 2 minutes about 32 PIPS
Ranged next 3 minutes
At 10:00 AM ET-moved down for 5 minutes about 28 PIPS – wrong direction
Moved up next 5 minutes about 52 PIPS - right direction
a one minute USD/CAD currency pair chart
This currency pair USD/CAD at 9:55 AM ET-moved up down 1st 4 minutes about 20 PIPS
Mini-move up next minute
At 10:00 AM ET-moved up for 5 minutes about 26 PIPS – wrong direction
Moved down next 14 minutes about 40 PIPS – right direction
a one minute USD/JPY currency pair chart
This USD/JPY currency pair at 9:55 AM ET-ranged for 5 minutes
At 10:00 AM ET-minor move down for 3 minutes
Ranged for 9 minutes
I did not trade this time!
This report is next scheduled for release on Friday 03-12-10 at 9:55 AM ET.
I will probably be posting a “preview” of next months reports a day or two before.
Stay tuned!
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