The Fundamental FOREX Blog

On  Friday, 02-12-10 at 8:30 AM ET, the USD – Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales MoM reports were released.

These two reports, along with the USD Retail Sales Ex. Auto and Gas report are released monthly by the Census Bureau.

Along with these USD reports, there was a CAD – New Motor Vehicle Sales MoM report  scheduled for release by Statistics Canada:

I did a “preview” post of this months news release, click here for a review.

The USD – Core Retail Sales MoM report is more attuned to what is currently happening in the economy – therefore it is the report that may have the greatest impact on the currency market.

Here is what happened this month:

USD – Core Retail Sales MoM stats

Previous = -0.2%

Forecast = 0.4%

Actual = 0.6%

USD – Retail Sales MoM stats

Previous = -0.3% ————-revised = -0.1%

Forecast = 0.4%

Actual = 0.5%

Here is how I was set up and what happened:

USD-6-30AM-02-12-10
Looking for a 0.5 difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Core Retail Sales m/m
——actual———-forecast———-previous
_____0.6%________0.4%______   -0.2%
out at 0.9% or better – BUY USD/JPY
out at -0.1% or less – SELL USD/JPY
Good – “actual” came out higher then “forecast” by 0.2%
Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 0.8%

I did not enter a trade this time:

Here are the charts:

a one minute EUR/JPY chart

This currency pair EUR/JPY spiked up 1st 2 minutes about 23 PIPS
Spiked down next 2 minutes about 30 PIPS
Moved up next 8 minutes about 49 PIPS
Moved down next 46 minutes about 95 PIPS

a one minute EUR/USD chart

This currency pair EUR/USD spiked up/down for 6 minutes about 22 PIPS
Moved up next 6 minutes about 26 PIPS – wrong direction
Moved down next 45 minutes about 36 PIPS – right direction

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

This currency pair GBP/JPY moved up/down for 4 minutes about 30 PIPS
Moved up next 8 minutes about 43 PIPS
Moved down next 45 minutes about 104 PIPS

a one minute GBP/USD chart

This currency pair GBP/USD ranged for 7 minutes
Moved up next 17 minutes about 28 PIPS
Ranged!

a one minute USD/CAD chart

This currency pair USD/CAD ranged for 20 minutes

a one minute USD/JPY chart

This currency pair USD/JPY moved up for 9 minutes about 24 PIPS – right direction
Moved down for 49 minutes about 53 PIPS – wrong direction

The next time this will be released will be on Friday, 03-12-10 at 8:30 AM ET.

I will post a “preview” a day more two prior.

Stay tuned!