The Fundamental FOREX Blog

On Wednesday, 02-03-10, at 7:30 PM ET the AUD Retail Sales m/m report was released.

Also, the AUD Building Approvals report was released.

I did a “preview” post of this AUD Retail Sales report on Tuesday, 02-02-10, click here to check it out.

The AUD Retail Sales m/m and Building Approvals reports are released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

Lets take a look at what is happening tomorrow:

AUD Retail Sales m/m Stats:

Previous = 1.4%

Forecast = 0.3%

Actual = -0.7%

AUD Building Approvals MoM came out – I have noticed that the FOREX traders seem to be paying some additional attention to real estate related news reports.

So I will be paying attention to how that comes out – I was hopeful both reports would be  going in the same direction.

The “forecasts” implied that the economists were NOT feeling better about the future economy of the Australian economy.

Here is how I was set up and what happened:

AUD-7-30PM-02-03-10
Looking for a 1.0% difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for AUD
AUD Retail Sales Trend m/m
——actual———-forecast———-previous
_____-0.7%______0.3%__________1.4%
_____-0.7%______ 0.3%_________ 1.5%
Out at 1.3% or higher – BUY AUD/JPY
Out at -0.7% or lower – SELL AUD/JPY
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 1.0%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “previous” by 2.1%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then revised “previous” by 2.2%

AUD Building Approvals m/m
______2.2%______ -0.2%________ 5.9%
good – “actual” came out higher then “forecast” by 2.2%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “previous” by 3.7%

Here are the charts:

a one minute AUD/JPY currency chart

This AUD/JPY currency pair spike down/up 1st minute about 45 PIPS/ 19 PIPS
Move down 2nd minute about 7 PIPS
Move up next 12 minutes about 29 PIPS

I entered 3 trades with this currency pair and lost all 3 – this is the second time I have traded this news report and currency pair – both times I was a loser. I am going to re-evaluate this news report.

Perhaps the “real estate” report is affecting the market more then “retail sales”.

a one minute AUD/NZD currency chart

This AUD/NZD currency pair spike down/up 1st minute about 40 PIPS/ 19 PIPS
Move down 2nd minute about 9 PIPS
Move up next 32 minutes about 45 PIPS – wrong direction

a one minute AUD/USD currency chart

This AUD/USD currency pair spike down/up 1st minute about 41 PIPS/ 20 PIPS
Move down 2nd minute about 9 PIPS
Move up next 4 minutes about 20 PIPS – wrong direction
Ranged

a one minute EUR/AUD currency chart

This EUR/AUD currency pair spike up/down 1st minute about 71 PIPS/ 42 PIPS
Move up 2nd minute about 12 PIPS
Ranged

The next scheduled release of this report is on Wednesday, 03-01-10 at 7:30 PM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Past performances are not an indication of future results

I will write a “follow up” post soon after this release.

So—Stay tuned!