On Thursday, 01-28-10 at 8:30 AM ET, the Census Bureau released the monthly reports USD Core Durable Goods Orders MoM and USD Durable Goods Orders MoM.
My “preview” post concerning these reports was on Wednesday, 01-27-10, click here for a review.
This months scheduled release involved 2 other news reports as well.
USD – Initial Jobless Claims
USD – Continuing Jobless Claims
Released weekly by the Department of Labor.
Here is how the reports for this month were set up and the results:
USD – Core Durable Goods Orders m/m – Stats
Previous = 2.0%
Forecast = 0.4%
Actual = 0.9%
USD – Durable Goods Orders m/m – Stats
Previous = 0.2%_______ revised = -0.4%
Forecast = 2.1%
Actual = 0.3%
USD – Initial Jobless Claims – Stats
Previous = 482K________ revised = 478K
Forecast = 451K
Actual = 470K
USD – Continuing Jobless Claims – Stats
Previous = 4599K_______ revised = 4659K
Forecast = 4590K
Actual = 4602K
Here is how I was set up and what happened:
USD-6-30AM-01-28-10
Looking for a 1.5% difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
——actual———-forecast———-previous
____0.9%________0.4%________2.0%
out at 1.9% or higher – BUY USD/JPY
out at -1.1% or lower – SELL USD/JPY
Good – ‘actual” came out higher then “forecast” by 0.5%
Bad – ‘actual” came out lower then “previous” by 1.1%
Actual < Forecast = Good for USD
USD Unemployment Claims 50K
________________ 451K________ 482K
______470K ______451K________478K
Bad – ‘actual” came out higher then “forecast” by 19K
Good – ‘actual” came out lower then “previous” by 12K
There were so many “conflicting” reports – it was difficult getting a handle on where the markets might go – in spite of that….
I did enter a trade – which turned against me and was a loser.
Here are the charts:
a one minute EUR/JPY chart
This EUR/JPY currency pair spiked down 1st 3 minutes about 42 PIPS
Moved up next 57 minutes about 38 PIPS
a one minute EUR/USD chart
This EUR/USD currency pair spiked down 1st 2 minutes about 12 PIPS
Moved up next 18 minutes about 15 PIPS
a one minute GBP/JPY chart
This GBP/JPY currency pair spiked down 1st 2 minutes about 46 PIPS
Moved up next 58 minutes about 45 PIPS
a one minute GBP/USD chart
This GBP/USD currency pair spiked up/down/up 1st 2 minutes
Moved up next 4 minutes about 19 PIPS
Ranged next 16 minutes
Moved down for 21 minutes about 19 PIPS
a one minute USD/CAD chart
This USD/CAD currency pair moved up 1st 2 minutes about 12 PIPS
Moved down next 6 minutes about 21 PIPS
Moved up for 23 minutes about 20 PIPS
a one minute USD/JPY chart
This USD/JPY currency pair spiked down/up 1st minute about 25 PIPS
Moved down next minute
Ranged next 28 minutes
Moved up for 29 minutes about 21 PIPS
Executed a losing trade with this currency pair!!
The next scheduled release of these reports is on Thursday, 02-25-10 at 8:30 AM ET.
I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.
Stay tuned!
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