The Fundamental FOREX Blog

On Friday, 01-22-10 at 8:30 AM ET, two Canadian reports were released

CAD Retails Sales MoM
CAD Core Retail Sales MoM

I posted a “preview” post on Thursday, 01-21-10, click here for a review.

The Retail Sales report is “forecast” to be less than the last months report. Resulting perhaps, in a decline in the Canadian economy. The Core Retail Sale report “forecast” is neutral.

Canada’s “Statistics Canada”  release these monthly reports.

It appears that the “Retail Sales” report has a little more impact for traders than the “Core Retail Sales“.

Here is what happened when the “Retail Sales” and “Core Retail Sales” reports were released:

CAD – Retail Sales MoM stats
Previous = 0.8%

Forecast = -0.3%

Actual = -0.3%

CAD – Core Retail Sales MoM stats
Previous = 0.2%

Forecast = 0.2%

Actual = 0.0%

Here is how I was set up and the results:

CAD-6-30AM-01-22-10
Looking for a 1.5% difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for CAD
CAD Retail Sales m/m
——actual———-forecast———-previous
________________-0.3%________0.8%
____-0.3% _______-0.3%_______ 1.0%
out at -0.6% or lower – BUY EUR/CAD
out at 2.4% or higher – SELL EUR/CAD
Neutral – “actual” came just as “forecast”
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “previous” by 1.1%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then revised “previous” by 1.3%

CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
_______________0.2%__________0.2%
_____0.0% ______0.3% _________0.3%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 0.2%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then revised “forecast” by 0.3%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “previous” by 0.2%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then revised “previous” by 0.3%

These reports were not good for the CAD.

I had been set up to trade the currency pair EUR/CAD if the difference between the “actual“ and the “forecast“ of the MoM Retails had been 1.5%. It was not enough difference in my opinion for a trade – therefore – no trade.

Check out the charts:

a one minute CAD/JPY chart

This CAD/JPY currency pair moved up 1st 5 minutes about 22 PIPS – wrong direction
Moved down next 25 minutes about 43 PIPS – right direction

a one minute EUR/CAD chart

This EUR/CAD currency pair spiked up/down 1st minute about 19 PIPS/ 8 PIPS
Moved down next minute about 12 PIPS
Ranged next 9 minutes
Moved up next 38 minutes about 30 PIPS – right direction

a one minute GBP/CAD chart

This GBP/CAD currency pair spiked up/down 1st minute about 31 PIPS/ 17 PIPS
Moved down next 8 minutes about 26 PIPS – wrong direction
Moved up next 38 minutes about 30 PIPS – right direction

a one minute USD/CAD chart

This USD/CAD currency pair spiked up/down 1st minute about 17 PIPS/ 8 PIPS
Moved down next 8 minutes about 17 PIPS – wrong direction
Moved up next 21 minutes about 35 PIPS – right direction

The next time these reports are scheduled to be released is on Friday, 02-19-10 at 8:30AM ET.

Some times report scheduling can be changed.

Chances are I will post a “preview” of these reports a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!