On Friday, 01-15-10 at 9:55 AM ET the University of Michigan was releasing two monthly reports, Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations.
These are “preliminary” reports.
I did a “preview” of these reports on Thursday, 01-14-10, click here for a review.
This from the FOREX Factory Calendar:
“Actual > Forecast = Good for currency (Note: While this is the ‘usual’ effect, under current market conditions the reverse tends to be true against some currencies, as bad data has been triggering the purchase of US bonds);”
Lets see how the stats turned out for this report:
USD U. of Michigan Confidence Stats:
Previous = 72.5
Forecast = 73.7 revised = 73.8
Actual = 72.8
USD U. of Michigan Inflation Expectations Stats:
Previous = 2.5%
Forecast =
Actual = 2.8%
Keep in mind, some of the traders get the U of M reports at 9:55 AM ET and others do not get them until 10:00 AM ET.
Here is how I was set up and what happened:
USD-7-55AM-01-15-10 PreLim
Looking for a 4.0 difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD U. of Michigan Confidence
____actual_____forecast_____previous
_______________73.7________72.5
_____72.8_______73.8________72.5
Out at 77.7 or higher – BUY EUR/USD
Out at 69.7 or lower – SELL EUR/USD
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 0.9
Bad – “actual” came out lower then revised “forecast” by 1.0
Good – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 0.3
……………Not enough for a good trade…………
Here are the charts:
a one minute EUR/JPY currency pair chart
The EUR/JPY currency pair moved down for 14 minutes about 40 PIPS
Minor ranging up
a one minute EUR/USD currency pair chart
This currency pair EUR/USD had a small move up 1st minute
Move down next 12 minutes about 32 PIPS
Move up next 21 minutes about 23 PIPS
a one minute GBP/JPYcurrency pair chart
This currency pair GBP/JPY move down for 14 minutes about 32 PIPS
Ranged
a one minute GBP/USD currency pair chart
This currency pair GBP/USD Move down for 57 minutes about 41 PIPS
a one minute USD/CAD currency pair chart
This currency pair USD/CAD Move up for 43 minutes about 25 PIPS
a one minute USD/JPY currency pair chart
This USD/JPY currency pair minor move down 1st 2 minutes
Ranged up
I did not trade this time!
This report is next scheduled for release on Friday 02-12-10 at 9:55 AM ET.
I will probably be posting a “preview” of next months reports a day or two before.
Stay tuned!
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