The Fundamental FOREX Blog

On  Thursday, 01-14-10 at 8:30 AM ET, the USD – Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales MoM reports will be released.

These two reports, along with the USD Retail Sales Ex. Auto and Gas report are released monthly by the Census Bereau.

Along with these three USD reports, there are 4 other reports are scheduled for release:

USD Import Price Index (MoM) & (YoY)
Released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics

The USD – Initial Jobless Claims and the USD Continuing Claims released weekly by the Department of Labor

Also, there is a  EUR – ECB Press Conference at the same time.

I did a “preview” post of this months news release, click here for a review.

The USD – Core Retail Sales MoM report is more attuned to what is currently happening in the economy – therefore it is the report that may have the greatest impact on the currency market.

Here is what the FOREX Factory has to say:

“Actual > Forecast = Good for currency (Note: While this is the ‘usual’ effect, under current market conditions the reverse tends to be true against some currencies, as bad data has been triggering the purchase of US bonds);”

Here is what happened this month:

USD – Core Retail Sales MoM stats

Previous = 1.2% revised = 1.8%

Forecast = 0.3% revised = 0.4%

Actual = -0.3%

USD – Retail Sales MoM stats

Previous = 1.3% revised = 1.8%

Forecast = 0.4%

Actual = -0.3%

USD – Retail Sales MoM came out lower then the “forecast” just as USD – Core Retail Sales MoM did – not good for the US economy.

Here is how I was set up:

USD-6-30AM-01-14-10
Looking for a 0.5 difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Core Retail Sales m/m
——actual———-forecast———-previous
________________0.3%______   1.2%
_____-0.3%______ 0.4%_______ 1.8%
out at 0.8% or better – BUY USD/JPY
out at -0.2% or less – SELL USD/JPY
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 0.6%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then revised “forecast” by 0.7%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “previous” by 1.5%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then revised “previous” by 2.1%

USD Unemployment Claims    438K    434K
_____444K__________ 438K_______ 433K
Bad – “actual” came out higher then “forecast” by 6K
Bad – “actual” came out higher then “previous” by 10K
Bad – “actual” came out higher then revised “previous” by 11K

USD Continuing Jobless Claims came out lower the “forecast”, which may have caused some confusion since the USD Initial Jobless Claims were higher then “forecast”.

Here are the charts:

a one minute EUR/JPY chart

This currency pair EUR/JPY moved down for 46 minutes about 92 PIPS

a one minute EUR/USD chart

This currency pair EUR/USD ranged for 30 minutes

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

This currency pair GBP/JPY moved down for 19 minutes about 79 PIPS

a one minute GBP/USD chart

This currency pair GBP/USD ranged 1st 5 minutes
Moved up next 21 minutes about 50 PIPS - right direction

a one minute USD/CAD chart

This currency pair USD/CAD ranged

a one minute USD/JPY chart

This currency pair USD/JPY Moved down 1st minute about 30 PIPS – right direction
Moved up next 4 minutes about 19 PIPS – wrong direction
Moved down next 20 minutes about 44 PIPS – right direction

Entered 4 trades this time – lost 2 and won 2. I was set up in the correct direction, my “stop loss” was just a little to close for the first two trades.

The next time this will be released will be on Thursday, 02-11-10 at 8:30 AM ET.

I will post a “preview” a day more two prior.

Stay tuned!