The Fundamental FOREX Blog

On Wednesday, 01-13-10 at 4:30 AM ET the GBP Industrial Production MoM and YoY, and Manufacturing Production MoM and YoY reports were released.

These two reports were standing alone at this time.

On Tuesday, 01-12-10 I wrote a “preview” post , click here for a review.

The Industrial Production reports appear to have the greatest impact on the currency markets, but the impact can be even greater if the Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production both come out moving in the same direction.

These reports are released by the UK National Statistics Publication Hub.

Here is what happened last month:
Looking for a 0.4% difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for GBP
GBP – Industrial Production MoM and YoY stats:

Previous = 0.0% revised = -0.1%

Forecast = 0.3%

Actual = 0.4%

Manufacturing Production MoM and YoY stats:

Previous = 0.0%

Forecast = 0.3%

Actual = 0.0%

Here is how I was set up and what happened:

GBP-2-30AM-01-13-10
Looking for a 0.4% difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for GBP
GBP Industrial Production (MoM)
——actual———-forecast———-previous
________________0.3%________0.0%
_____0.4% _______0.3% _______-0.1%
Out at 0.7% or higher – BUY GBP/USD
Out at -0.1%  or lower- SELL GBP/USD
Good – “actual” came higher then “forecast” by 0.1%
Good – “actual” came higher then “previous” by 0.4%
Good – “actual” came higher then revised “previous” by 0.5%

GBP Manufacturing Production m/m
______0.0%________0.3%______0.0%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 0.3%
Neutral – “actual” came out just as “forecast”.

Here are the charts:

a one minute EUR/GBP chart

At the report release, this EUR/GBP currency pair had minor up/down/up 1st minute
Moved down next 4 minutes about 14 PIPS – right direction??
Moved up next 39 minutes about 21 PIPS – wrong direction??

a one minute EURJPY chart

At the report release, this EUR/JPY currency pair had minor move!!

a one minute EUR/USD chart

At the report release, this EUR/USD currency pair move down for 10 minutes about 8 PIPS
Move up next 6 minutes about 16 PIPS
Move down next 17 minutes about 20 PIPS

a one minute GBP/CHF chart

At the report release, this GBP/CHF currency pair had minor up/down/up 1st minute
Moved up next 4 minutes about 23 PIPS – right direction??
Moved down next 39 minutes about 45 PIPS – wrong direction??

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

At the report release, this GBP/JPY currency pair minor up/down/up 1st minute
Moved up next 4 minutes about 27 PIPS – right direction??
Moved down next 41 minutes about 45 PIPS – wrong direction??

a one minute GBP/USD chart

At the report release, this GBP/USD currency pair minor up/down/up 1st minute
Moved up next 4 minutes about 22 PIPS – right direction??
Moved down next 41 minutes about 35 PIPS – wrong direction??

I did not make any trades this time!

The next scheduled release of this report will be on Tuesday, 02-09-10 at 4:30 AM ET.

I will probably write a “preview” post a day or two before.

Stay tuned!