The Fundamental FOREX Blog

On Thursday, 12-24-09 at 8:30 AM ET, the Census Bureau released the monthly reports USD Core Durable Goods Orders MoM and USD Durable Goods Orders MoM.

I did a “previous” post on Wednesday, 12-23-09 of these reports, click here for a review.

Last time these two reports were stand alone reports, which happens quite often. But this months scheduled release involves 2 other news reports.

USD – Initial Jobless Claims
USD – Continuing Jobless Claims

Released weekly by the Department of Labor.

Here is how the reports for this month are set up:

USD – Core Durable Goods Orders m/m – Stats

Previous = -1.3% revised = -0.7%

Forecast = 0.9% revised = 1.1%

Actual = 2.0%
Good – “actual” came out  higher then “forecast” by 1.1%
Good – “actual” came out  higher then revised “forecast” by 0.9%
Good – “actual” came out  higher then “previous” by 3.3%
Good – “actual” came out  higher then revised “previous” by 2.7%

USD – Durable Goods Orders m/m – Stats

Previous = -0.6%

Forecast = 0.4% revised = 0.6%

Actual = 0.2%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” 0.2%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then revised “forecast” 0.4%
Good – “actual” came out  higher then “previous” by 0.8%

USD – Initial Jobless Claims – Stats

Previous = 480K

Forecast = 471K

Actual = 452K

USD – Continuing Jobless Claims – Stats

Previous = 5186K revised = 5203K

Forecast = 5180K

Actual = 5076K

So, overall the reports showed an improvement for the US economy, and currency pairs that involved the USD should have, in a small way, moved in favor of the USD.

The following is a quote from the FOREX Factory website Calendar:

“Actual > Forecast = Good for currency (Note: While this is the ‘usual’ effect, under current market conditions the reverse tends to be true against some currencies, as bad data has been triggering the purchase of US bonds);”

I had set up to trade the currency pair GBP/USD if the “actual” came at least 2.0% difference from the “forecast” – which it did not do, so I did not place a trade.

The market moved against the USD after a few moments into the reports. That is, the 4 USD currency pairs that I watch.

Here are the charts:

a one minute EUR/JPY chart

This EUR/JPY currency pair moved up 1st 3 minutes about 16 PIPS
Moved down next 59 minutes about 23 PIPS

a one minute EUR/USD chart

This EUR/USD currency pair moved down for 8 minutes about 18 PIPS – right direction
Moved up for 8 minutes about 14 PIPS – wrong direction
Moved down next 39 minutes about 32 PIPS – right direction

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

This GBP/JPY currency pair moved up 1st 3 minutes about 24 PIPS
Moved down next 20 minutes about 34 PIPS
Ranged!

a one minute GBP/USD chart

This GBP/USD currency pair moved down for 50 minutes about 37 PIPS – right direction

a one minute USD/CAD chart

This USD/CAD currency pair moved up for 34 minutes about 36 PIPS – right direction

a one minute USD/JPY chart

This USD/JPY currency pair moved up for 3 minutes about 20 PIPS – right direction
Moved down next 11 minutes about 11 PIPS – wrong direction
Moved up next 38 minutes about 13 PIPS – right direction

The next scheduled release of these reports is on Thursday, 01-28-10 at 8:30 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!