The Fundamental FOREX Blog

On Monday, 12-21-09 at 8:30 AM ET, two Canadian reports were released

CAD Retails Sales MoM
CAD Core Retail Sales MoM

Along with one USD report:

USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index

This USD report should not carry any weight trading wise.

I posted a “preview” post for this months reports on Sunday, 12-20-09, click here for a review.

Both reports are forecast to be less than the last months reports. Resulting perhaps, in a decline in the Canadian economy.

Canada’s “Statistics Canada”  release these monthly reports.

It appears that the “Retail Sales” report has a little more impact for traders than the “Core Retail Sales“.

Here is what happened when the “Retail Sales” and “Core Retail Sales” reports were released:

CAD-6-30AM-12-21-09
Looking for a 1.5% difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for CAD
CAD Retail Sales m/m
Actual forecast previous
.                     0.9% . 1.0%
.       0.8% .   0.8% .       1.1%
out at -0.6% or lower – BUY EUR/CAD

out at 2.4% or higher – SELL EUR/CAD

Bad – actual came out lower then “forecast” by 0.1%
Neutral – actual came out the same as revised “forecast”
Bad – actual came out lower then “previous” by 0.2%
Bad – actual came out lower then revised “previous” by 0.3%

CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
.                         0.5%        1.1%
. 0.2%             0.4%        1.0%
Bad – actual came out lower then “forecast” by 0.3%
Bad – actual came out lower then revised “forecast” by 0.2%
Bad – actual came out lower then “previous” by 0.9%
Bad – actual came out lower then revised “previous” by 0.8%

These reports were not good for the CAD and did not much affect the 4 currency pairs that I was monitoring.

I had been set up to trade the currency pair EUR/CAD if the difference between the “actual“ and the “forecast“ of the MoM Retails had been 0.1%. It was not enough difference in my opinion for a trade – therefore – no trade.

Check out the charts:

a one minute USD/CAD chart

This USD/CAD currency pair had about 15 PIP range.

a one minute EUR/CAD chart

This EUR/CAD currency pair did nearly a 30 PIP range.

a one minute CAD/JPY chart

This CAD/JPY currency pair had minor ranging.

a one minute GBP/CAD chart

This GBP/CAD currency pair did nearly a 30 PIP range.

The next scheduled release for these 2 reports will be on Friday, 01-22-10 at 8:30AM ET, and it appears they will be released alone this time.

Some times report scheduling can be changed.

Chances are I will post a “preview” of these reports a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!