The Fundamental FOREX Blog

On Thursday, 12-24-09 at 8:30 AM ET, the Census Bureau will release the monthly reports USD Core Durable Goods Orders MoM and USD Durable Goods Orders MoM.

My last “follow up” post concerning these reports was on Friday, 10-30-09, click here for a review.

Last time these two reports were stand alone reports, which happens quite often. But this months scheduled release involves 2 other news reports.

USD – Initial Jobless Claims
USD – Continuing Jobless Claims

Released weekly by the Department of Labor.

Here is how the reports for this month are set up:

USD – Core Durable Goods Orders m/m – Stats

Previous = -1.3%

Forecast = 1.1%

USD – Durable Goods Orders m/m – Stats

Previous = -0.6%

Forecast = 0.6%

USD – Initial Jobless Claims – Stats

Previous = 480K

Forecast = 471K

USD – Continuing Jobless Claims – Stats

Previous = 5186K

Forecast = 5180K

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

USD-6-30AM-12-24-09
1.5% diff – watch for reversal

Actual > Forecast = Good for USD

USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
.             actual .     forecast. .     previous
.                               1.1% -1.3%
out at 2.6% or higher – BUY USD/JPY
out at -0.4% or lower – SELL USD/JPY

Actual < Forecast = Good for USD
USD Unemployment Claims  50K
.             actual.           forecast .      previous
.                                  471K 480K
Watch that jobless Claims to go in same way

It appears that the economists believe that durable goods orders will show an increase over last month. And Unemployment claims will decrease – both “forecast” would have the US economy improving.

The Core Durable Goods Orders appear to have the greatest impact on the currency market, but if they both do not come out moving in the same direction, either positive or negative, there can be a conflict, who knows what may happen then, that goes for the Jobless Claims as well.

These reports will have to move in the same direction – if not, trading could be “tricky”.

There is a note in the FOREX Factory Calendar concerning these reports:

“Actual > Forecast = Good for currency (Note: While this is the ‘usual’ effect, under current market conditions the reverse tends to be true against some currencies, as bad data has been triggering the purchase of US bonds);”

Soon after the reports had been released I posted a “follow up” report of the results, click here to see what happened.

The next scheduled release of these two reports on Thursday, 01-28-10 at 8:30 AM ET, at this point in time a Canadian news report and three other USA news reports will be released.

Stay tuned!