The Fundamental FOREX Blog

On Monday, 12-21-09 at 8:30 AM ET, two Canadian reports will be released

CAD Retails Sales MoM
CAD Core Retail Sales MoM

Along with one USD report:

USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index

This USD report should not carry any weight trading wise.

The last time that the Canadian  reports were release essentially alone was on Monday, 11-23-09 at 8:30 AM ET.

I posted a “follow up” post on Saturday, 11-28-09, click here for a review.

Both reports are forecast to be less than the last months reports. Resulting perhaps, in a decline in the Canadian economy.

Canada’s “Statistics Canada”  release these monthly reports.

It appears that the “Retail Sales” report has a little more impact for traders than the “Core Retail Sales“.

Here is the set up tomorrow for the “Retail Sales” reports:

CAD – Retail Sales MoM stats
Previous = 1.0%

Forecast = 0.9%

CAD – Core Retail Sales MoM stats
Previous = 1.1%

Forecast = 0.5%

If both reports come out in the same direction and are greater than the “forecast”, either positive or negative by say 1.5% or more, the market should have a good move over time.

Here is how I am set up for tomorrow:

CAD-8-30AM ET-12-21-09
Looking for a 1.5% difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for CAD
CAD Retail Sales m/m
Actual forecast previous
.                        0.9%            1.0%

out at -0.6% or lower – BUY EUR/CAD
out at 2.4% or higher – SELL EUR/CAD

CAD Core Retail Sales m/m F =  0.5%     P =  1.1%

Watch for conflict

I did post a “follow up” soon after, check here to see what happened.

The next release for these 2 reports is scheduled for Friday, 01-22-10 at 8:30AM ET.
Some times the reports scheduling can be changed.

Anyway, I will probably be writing a “preview” post for next months reports.

Stay tuned!