The Fundamental FOREX Blog

Tomorrow, Wednesday 12-16-09 at 4:30 AM ET, the GBP Claimant Count Change and ILO Unemployment Rate will be released.

These two reports will be released with four other economic news reports -

GBP Jobless Claims Change,
GBP Manufacturing Unit Wage Cost (3MoY),
GBP Average Earnings inc bonus (3MoY)
GBP Retail Price Index (MoM)

The last time these two were released was on Wednesday, 11-11-09 at 4:30 AM ET . Click here to check out the “follow up”.

Both of these reports are released by the U.K.s National Statistics on a monthly basis.

Here is the set up for this month:

GBP Claimant Count Change stats:

previous = 12.9K

forecast = 13.9K

GBP ILO Unemployment Rate stats:

previous = 7.8%

forecast = 7.9%

These two reports “forecast” appear to be complimentary.

Here is how I am set up for a possible trade.

GBP-2-30AM-12-16-09
looking for a 20K difference
Actual < Forecast = Good for GBP
GBP Claimant Count Change

.             actual        forecast         previous
.                                 13.9K              12.9K
out at 04.6K or lower – BUY – GBP/JPY
out at 44.6K or higher – SELL – GBP/JPY

GBP Unemployment Rate

.         actual           forecast                previous
.                               7.9%                         7.8%
Actual < Forecast = Good for GBP

In the past, before the current world economic situation, the Claimant Count Change had a greater influence on the FOREX market, but now it appears that the Unemployment rate is getting stronger.

I will be keeping an eye on both the Claimant Count change and the Unemployment Rate, but mostly the Unemployment Rate – if there is a difference of 0.1% to 0.2%, chances are I will trade the GBP/JPY currency pair – hopefully they both come out without any conflict.

I did post a “follow up” of this report soon after, click here to see what happened.

The next scheduled release of these reports is on Wednesday, 01-20-10 at 5:30 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!