The Fundamental FOREX Blog

On Friday, 12-11-09 at 8:30 AM ET, the USD – Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales MoM reports were released.

These reports are released monthly by the Census Bereau.

Along with these two USD reports, 2 other reports are scheduled for release:

USD Import Price Index (MoM)
Released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics

CAD New Housing Price Index (MoM)
Released monthly by Statistics Canada

I posted a “preview” of this months USD Core Retails and Retail Sales Reports, click here to see.

The USD – Core Retail Sales MoM report is more attuned to what is currently happening in the economy – therefore it is the report that may have the greatest impact on the currency market.

Here is what the FOREX Factory has to say:

“Actual > Forecast = Good for currency (Note: While this is the ‘usual’ effect, under current market conditions the reverse tends to be true against some currencies, as bad data has been triggering the purchase of US bonds);”

Here is what happened this month:

USD – Core Retail Sales MoM stats

Previous = 0.2% revised = 0.0%

Forecast = 0.6% revised = 0.5%

Actual = 1.2%
Good – Actual came out higher then “forecast” by 0.6%,
“    – higher then revised “forecast” by 0.7% and
“    – higher then “previous” by 1.0%.
“    – higher then revised “previous” by 1.2%

USD – Retail Sales MoM stats

Previous = 1.4% revised = 1.1%

Forecast = 0.6%

Actual = 1.6%
Good – Actual came out higher then “forecast” by 0.7%,
Bad – lower then “previous” by 0.1%
Good – Actual came out higher then revised “previous” by 0.2%,

Here is how I was set up:

USD-6-30AM-12-11-09
I was looking for a 0.5% difference
Actual > Forecast = Good for USD
USD Core Retail Sales m/m
.          actual forecast previous
.                            0.6%              0.2%
.            1.2%        0.5%              0.0%
out at 1.1% or better – BUY USD/JPY
out at 0.1% or less – SELL USD/JPY
USD Retail Sales m/m
.          actual forecast previous
.          1.2%         0.6% 1.4%

Here are the charts:

a one minute EUR/JPY chart

This currency pair EUR/JPY moved up 1st 3 minutes about 49 PIPS -
Moved down next 57 minutes about 55 PIPS

a one minute EUR/USD chart

This currency pair EUR/USD Moved down for 60 minutes about 100 PIPS – right direction

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

This currency pair GBP/JPY moved up 1st 3 minutes about 56 PIPS -
Ranged.

a one minute GBP/USD chart

This currency pair GBP/USD moved down for 60 minutes about 65 PIPS – right direction

a one minute USD/CAD chart

This currency pair USD/CAD moved up for 60 minutes about 50 PIPS – right direction

a one minute USD/JPY chart

This currency pair USD/JPY moved up for 42 minutes about 58 PIPS – right direction
Had a winning trade with this currency pair!

The next time this will be released will be on Thursday, 01-14-10 at 8:30 AM ET.

I will post a “preview” a day more two prior.

Stay tuned!