On Tuesday, 11-24-09, at 10:00AM ET the USD Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index reports were released along with two others.
USD Housing Price Index MoM
USD Housing Price Purchase Index QoQ
The Consumer Confidence appears to have the greatest impact on the economy.
I had written a “preview” post about these reports on Monday, 11-23-09, click here for a review.
The Consumer Confidence is released by The Conference Board, Inc.
And the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond
The FHFA – Federal Housing Finance Agency is released by FHFA.
Lets take a look at what happened with these news releases:
USD Consumer Confidence Stats:
Previous = 47.7 revised = 48.4
Forecast = 47.6
Actual = 49.5
Good – higher then “forecast” by 1.9, higher then “previous” by 1.8, higher then revised “previous” by 1.1.
USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Stats:
Previous = 7
Forecast = 10
Actual = 1
BAD – lower then “forecast” by 9, lower then “previous” by 6, this report was release one minute early.
I had set to trade the currency pair USD/CAD with a 5.0 difference between the “actual” and the “forecast”.
Well, the “actual” did not come out greater then the 5.0 difference and I did not enter a trade.
Check out the charts.
a one minute EUR/JPY chart
The currency pair EUR/JPY spiked up about 31 PIPS and retraced about 13 PIPS the 1st minute – then continued down the next 29 minutes about 53 PIPS.
a one minute EUR/USD chart
The currency pair EUR/USD moved up the first minute about 22 PIPS – wrong direction, then reversed down the next 7 minutes about 40 PIPS – right direction.
a one minute GBP/JPY chart
The currency pair GBP/JPY spiked up about 34 PIPS and retraced about 17 PIPS the 1st minute – then continued down the next 28 minutes about 40 PIPS.
a one minute GBP/USD chart
The currency pair GBP/USD spiked up the first minute about 20 PIPS – wrong direction, then reversed down the next 7 minutes about 41 PIPS – right direction.
a one minute USD/CAD chart
The currency pair USD/CAD spiked down the first minute about 24 PIPS – wrong direction, then reversed up the next 8 minutes about 26 PIPS – right direction.
a one minute USD/JPY chart
The currency pair USD/JPY did not do anything to write about.
According to FOREX Factory the following:
“Actual > Forecast = Good for currency (Note: While this is the ‘usual’ effect, under current market conditions the reverse tends to be true against some currencies, as bad data has been triggering the purchase of US bonds);“
The next release of these reports will be on Tuesday, 12-29-09 at 10:00 AM ET.
I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.
Past performances are not an indication of future results.
So—Stay tuned!
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