The Fundamental FOREX Blog

On Monday, 11-23-09 at 8:30 AM ET, two Canadian reports were released

CAD Retails Sales MoM
CAD Core Retail Sales MoM

Along with one USD report:

USD Chicago Fed National Activity Index

I posted a “preview” of these reports on Sunday, 11-22-09, click here for a review.

Both reports are forecast to be less then the previous months reports. Resulting perhaps, in a decline in the Canadian economy. But as you will see – they were much better then expected.

Canada’s “Statistics Canada”  release their monthly report of  “Core Retail Sales” M/M which  excludes the sale of autos, and “Retails Sales” M/M which represents total consumer spending. These 2 reports come out about 50 days after the months end.

It appears that the “Retail Sales” report has a little more impact for traders than the “Core Retail Sales“.

Here is what happened when the “Retail Sales” and “Core Retail Sales” reports were released:

CAD – Retail Sales MoM stats
Previous = 0.8% revised = 1.0%

Forecast = 0.6%

Actual = 1.0%
Good – “actual” came out 0.4% higher then “forecast”, 0.2% higher then “previous” – and same as the revised “previous”.

CAD – Core Retail Sales MoM stats
Previous = 0.5% revised = 0.7%

Forecast = 0.4%

Actual = 1.1%
This report also came out good – 0.7% higher then “forecast”, 0.6% higher then “previous” and 0.4% higher then the revised “previous”.

Both reports came out in the same direction and were higher then the “forecast”.

These reports were good for the CAD and did affect the 4 currency pairs that I was monitoring.

I had been set up to trade the currency pair GBP/CAD if the difference between the “actual“ and the “forecast“ of the MoM Retails had been 2.0%. It was not enough difference in my opinion for a trade – therefore – no trade.

I may have a different strategy next time since all four currency pairs I watch for this news release did move well and I could have made some PIPS if I had traded.

Check out the charts:

a one minute USD/CAD chart

This USD/CAD currency pair moved down for about 40 minutes about 47 PIPS – in the right direction.

a one minute EUR/CAD chart

This EUR/CAD currency pair moved down for about 46 minutes about 54 PIPS – in the right direction.

a one minute CAD/JPY chart

This CAD/JPY currency pair was the lone exception, it spiked up about 19 PIPS the first 2 minutes – right direction.

Then, a small move down the next 14 minutes about 16 PIPS – wrong direction.

The traders finally came to terms and the pair moved up the next 23 minutes about 32 PIPS – right direction.

a one minute GBP/CAD chart

This GBP/CAD currency pair moved down for about 42 minutes about 31 PIPS – in the right direction.

The next scheduled release for these 2 reports will be on Monday, 12-21-09 at 8:30AM ET, and it appears they will be released alone this time.

Some times report scheduling can be changed.

Chances are I will post a “preview” of these reports a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!