The Fundamental FOREX Blog

On Monday, 11-16-09 at 8:30 AM ET, the USD – Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales MoM reports were released.

These reports are released monthly by the Census Bereau.

Along with these two USD reports, 2 other reports are scheduled for release:

USD – Empire State Manufacturing Index
Released monthly by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York

CAD – Manufacturing Sales MoM
Released monthly by Statistics Canada

The “preview” post I made on Sunday, 11-15-09, was my first posting of the USD Core Retails and Retail Sales Reports, click here to see.

Last month they were released on Wednesday, 10-14-09 at 8:30 AM ET along with 2 other economic news reports.

USD – Import Prices m/m
Released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics

CAD – New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m
Released monthly by the Statistics Canada

Here is what is happening on Monday, 11-16-09:

USD – Core Retail Sales MoM stats

Previous = 0.5%

Forecast = 0.4%

Actual = 0.2%
Bad – lower then the “forecast” by 0.2%, lower then the “previous” by 0.3%

USD – Retail Sales MoM stats

Previous = -1.5%

Forecast = 1.0%

Actual = 1.4%
Good – higher then “forecast” by 1.0%, higher then “previous“ by 2.9%.

The USD – Core Retail Sales MoM report is more attuned to what is currently happening in the economy – therefore it is the report that may have the greatest impact on the currency market.

I watch six currency pairs for these two reports, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and the USD/JPY.

Five of these currency pairs did react to the reports – the only exception being the currency pair USD/JPY.

Here are the other five charts:

a one minute EUR/JPY chart

This currency pair EUR/JPY spiked up 10 PIPS then down about 23 PIPS the first minute – then ranged 8 minutes – moved up the next 34 minutes about 23 PIPS.

a one minute EUR/USD chart

This currency pair EUR/USD spiked up 6 PIPS then down about 30 PIPS the first 2 minutes – wrong direction – moved up the next 16 minutes about 25 PIPS – right direction.

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

This currency pair GBP/JPY spiked up 5 PIPS then down about 21 PIPS the first minute – then ranged 7 minutes – moved up the next 37 minutes about 40 PIPS.

a one minute GBP/USD chart

This currency pair GBP/USD spiked up 5 PIPS then down about 24 PIPS the first 2 minutes – wrong direction – moved up the next 43 minutes about 35 PIPS – right direction.

a one minute USD/CAD chart

This currency pair USD/CAD spiked down 6 PIPS then up about 18 PIPS the first 3 minutes – wrong direction – moved down the next 18 minutes about 18 PIPS – right direction.

I did not enter a trade this month since I was looking for a greater difference between the “actual” and the “forecast”. I was set up to trade the USD/JPY and was looking for a 0.5% difference which did not happen.

In fact the USD/JPY currency pair was the only pair was not affected by the news releases.

Here is what the FOREX Factory has to say:

“Actual > Forecast = Good for currency (Note: While this is the ‘usual’ effect, under current market conditions the reverse tends to be true against some currencies, as bad data has been triggering the purchase of US bonds);”

The next time this will be released will be on Friday, 12-11-09 at 8:30 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day more two prior.

Stay tuned!