The Fundamental FOREX Blog

Tomorrow, Monday, 11-16-09 at 8:30 AM ET, the USD – Core Retail Sales and Retail Sales MoM reports will be released.

These reports are released monthly by the Census Bureau.

Along with these two USD reports, 2 other reports are scheduled for release:

USD – Empire State Manufacturing Index
Released monthly by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York

CAD – Manufacturing Sales MoM
Released monthly by Statistics Canada

This is my first posting of the USD Core Retails and Retail Sales Reports.

Last month they were released on Wednesday, 10-14-09 at 8:30 AM ET along with 2 other economic news reports.

USD – Import Prices m/m
Released monthly by the Bureau of Labor Statistics

CAD – New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m
Released monthly by the Statistics Canada

Here is what happened last month:

USD – Core Retail Sales MoM stats

Previous = 1.1% revised = 1.0%

Forecast = 0.3%

Actual = 0.5%
Good – Higher then “forecast” by 0.2%, however, Bad – lower then “previous” by o.6% and lower then revised “previous” by o.5%.

USD – Retail Sales MoM stats

Previous = 2.7% revised = 2.2%

Forecast = -0.2%

Actual = -1.5%
Good – higher then “forecast” by 0.5%, however, Bad – lower then “previous” by 4.2% and lower then revised “previous” by 3.7%.

The USD – Core Retail Sales MoM report is more attuned to what is currently happening in the economy – therefore it is the report that may have the greatest impact on the currency market.

Last month both reports came out in the same direction, which supported the idea that the economy was in trouble – people were being very selective with their spending.

I watch six currency pairs for these two reports, EUR/JPY, EUR/USD, GBP/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CAD and the USD/JPY.

Five of these currency pairs did react to the reports – the only exception being the currency pair USD/CAD.

Here are the other five charts:

a one minute EUR/JPY chart

This currency pair EUR/JPY spiked up the first minute about 29 PIPS – then moved down the next 59 minutes about 55 PIPS.

a one minute EUR/USD chart

This currency pair EUR/USD spiked up the first minute about 9 PIPS – then moved down the 1st 3 minutes about 22 PIPS – right direction and ranged up/down next 21 minutes

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

This currency pair GBP/JPY spiked up the first minute about 35 PIPS – then moved down the next 59 minutes about 103 PIPS.

a one minute GBP/USD chart

This currency pair GBP/USD spiked up about 14 PIPS and down about 24 PIPS the first 3 minutes – wrong direction – then moved up the next 7 minutes about 18 PIPS – right direction – then moved down about 34 PIPS in 42 minutes – wrong direction.

a one minute USD/JPY chart

This currency pair USD/JPY spiked up the first 2 minutes about 25 PIPS – wrong direction – then moved down the next 58 minutes about 57 PIPS – right direction.

I did not enter a trade last month since I was looking for a greater difference between the “actual” and the “forecast”. I was set up to trade the USD/JPY and will set up this month the same way – I am looking for a 0.5% difference.

Here is what is happening on Monday, 11-16-09:

USD – Core Retail Sales MoM stats

Previous = 0.5%

Forecast = 0.4%

USD – Retail Sales MoM stats

Previous = -1.5%

Forecast = 1.0%

This looks like the economists believe that the Core Retail Sales will continue in a decline this time, again. But that the Retails Sales will improve – we will see!

Also, pay attention to your “broker spread” when selecting currency pairs to trade.

I did post a “follow up” of this report, click here to see what happened.

The next time this will be released will be on Friday, 12-11-09 at 8:30 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day more two prior.

Stay tuned!