The Fundamental FOREX Blog

Tomorrow, Monday, 11-09-09 at 8:15 AM ET, the CAD – Housing Starts report will be released. This report is released monthly by CMHC – Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

I wrote a “follow up” post for last months housing starts report, click here for a review.

Last month the “actual” report came out only 3K above the “forecast” , which was good for the Canadian economy, but lower then the “previous”  and revised “previous” report, in spite of the low difference between the “actual“ and the “forecast“, the CAD involved currency pairs did move in favor of the CAD.

The USD/CAD and EUR/CAD currency pairs had the best moves.

Check out the “follow up” link above for an idea what was going on.

I did not enter a trade last month since I was looking for a greater difference between the “actual” and the “forecast”.

Here is what is happening on Monday, 11-09-09:

CAD – Housing Starts stats

Previous = 157K

Forecast = 149K

This looks like the CHMC believes that the Canadian housing starts will show a decrease this time, again.

With the “forecast“ of 149K, down from the “previous“ of 157K, I believe the traders will be poised for a “sell“ of the CAD. In this case, anything more than a 15K difference between the “actual” and the “forecast” should lead to good opportunities for “scalping”.

Especially, if the “actual” comes out higher then the “forecast”! Like it did last month.

If for some reason, the housing starts come out higher than the “previous” – that would be a huge benefit to the Canadian economy and be very helpful to the CAD.

I plan to set up to trade the currency pairs USD/CAD  or the EUR/CAD since they did so well last month.

Also, pay attention to your “broker spread” when selecting currency pairs to trade.

My normal “broker spread” for the USD/CAD currency pair is 4.3 PIPS, and for the EUR/CAD currency pair it is 5.0. Last month the USD/CAD PIP high was about 35 PIPS in 46 minutes, the EUR/CAD high was about 37 PIPS in only 17 minutes.

I will write a “follow up” post soon after this report is finished.

The next time this will be released will be on Tuesday, 12-08-09 at 8:15 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day more two prior.

Stay tuned!