The Fundamental FOREX Blog

On Wednesday, 10-28-09 at 8:30 AM ET, the USD Core Durable Goods Orders MoM and USD Durable Goods Orders MoM were released by the Census Bureau.

I wrote a “preview “ post on Tuesday 10-27-09, click here for a review.

These two reports were stand alone reports this month.

Here is how the reports were set up and the results:

USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m – Stats

Previous = -0.3% Revised = -0.4%

Forecast = 0.6%

Actual = 0.9%
Good – “actual“ came out higher then the “forecast“ by 0.3% and higher then the “previous“ by 1.2% and higher then the revised “previous“ by 1.3%.

USD Durable Goods Orders m/m – Stats

Previous = -2.6%

Forecast = 1.2%

Actual = 1.0%
Bad – “actual” came out lower then “forecast” by 0.2% – but
Good – “actual“ came out higher then “previous“ by 3.6%.

So, overall the reports showed an improvement for the US economy, and currency pairs that involved the USD should have , in a small way, moved in favor of the USD.

The following is a quote from the FOREX Factory website Calendar:

“Actual > Forecast = Good for currency (Note: While this is the ‘usual’ effect, under current market conditions the reverse tends to be true against some currencies, as bad data has been triggering the purchase of US bonds);”

I had set up to trade the currency pair GBP/USD if the “actual” came at least 2.0% difference from the “forecast” – which it did not do, so I did not place a trade.

The market moved against the USD after a few moments into the reports. That is, the 4 USD currency pairs that I watch.

Here are the charts:

a one minute EUR/JPY chart

This EUR/JPY currency pair moved down first 3 minutes about 15 PIPS, – reversed up the next 28 minutes about 40 PIPS.

a one minute EUR/USD chart

This EUR/USD currency pair moved down first 3 minutes about 12 PIPS, this was the right direction – then reversed up the next 25 minutes about 25 PIPS – this was the wrong direction.

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

This GBP/JPY currency pair moved down first 2 minutes about 21 PIPS, – reversed up the next 28 minutes about 46 PIPS.

a one minute GBP/USD chart

This GBP/USD currency pair moved down first 2 minutes about 14 PIPS, this was the right direction – then reversed up the next 58 minutes about 45 PIPS – this was the wrong direction.

a one minute USD/CAD chart

This USD/CAD currency pair moved up first 2 minutes about 12 PIPS, this was the right direction – then reversed down the next 15 minutes about 26 PIPS – this was the wrong direction.

a one minute USD/JPY chart

This USD/JPY currency pair spiked down first minute about 12 PIPS – then reversed up about 8 PIPS and ranged.

The next scheduled release of these reports is on Wednesday, 11-25-09 at 9:30 AM ET.

I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!