On Tuesday 10-27-09, at 10:00AM ET the USD Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index reports for October were released by themselves.
The Consumer Confidence appears to have the greatest impact on the economy.
I had written a “preview” post about these reports on Monday, 10-26-09, click here for a review.
The Consumer Confidence is released by The Conference Board, Inc.
And the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index is released by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
Lets take a look at what happened with these news releases:
USD Consumer Confidence Stats:
Previous = 53.1 revised = 53.4
Forecast = 54.1 revised = 53.7
Actual = 47.7
Bad – lower then “forecast” by 6.4, lower then revised “forecast” by 6.0 – lower then “previous” by 5.4, lower then revised “previous” by 5.7.
I had set to trade the currency pair GBP/USD with a 5.0 difference between the “actual” and the “forecast”.
Well, the “actual” did come out greater then the 5.0 difference and I did enter a trade against the USD – in fact two trades, both of which turned out bad.
Check out the charts.
a one minute EUR/JPY chart
The currency pair EUR/JPY spiked down about 48 PIPS and retraced about 18 PIPS the 1st minute – then continued down the next 8 minutes about 26 PIPS – a total of 44 PIPS down in 9 minutes. The pair then ranged the next 14 minutes.
a one minute EUR/USD chart
The currency pair EUR/USD moved down the first 8 minutes about 59 PIPS – wrong direction, then reversed up the next 34 minutes about 40 PIPS – right direction.
a one minute GBP/JPY chart
The currency pair GBP/JPY spiked down about 59 PIPS and retraced about 29 PIPS the 1st minute – then continued down the next 24 minutes about 29 PIPS – a total of 59 PIPS down in 25 minutes.
a one minute GBP/USD chart
The currency pair GBP/USD moved down the first 8 minutes about 49 PIPS – wrong direction, then ranged.
Two bad trades here!!
a one minute USD/CAD chart
The currency pair USD/CAD moved up the first 8 minutes about 39 PIPS – wrong direction, then reversed down the next 35 minutes about 50 PIPS – right direction.
a one minute USD/JPY chart
The currency pair USD/JPY spiked down about 24 PIPS and retraced about 18 PIPS the 1st minute – then moved up the next 7 minutes about 10 PIPS – wrong direction then moved down the next 7 minutes about 17 PIPS – right direction.
According to FOREX Factory the following:
“Actual > Forecast = Good for currency (Note: While this is the ‘usual’ effect, under current market conditions the reverse tends to be true against some currencies, as bad data has been triggering the purchase of US bonds);“
The above appears to be what transpired market wise?
The next release of these reports will be on Tuesday 11-24-09 at 11:00 AM ET.
I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.
Past performances are not an indication of future results.
So—Stay tuned!
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