The Fundamental FOREX Blog

On Wednesday, 10-28-09 at 8:30 AM ET, the Census Bureau will release the monthly reports USD Core Durable Goods Orders MoM and USD Durable Goods Orders MoM.

My last “follow up” post concerning these reports was on Friday, 10-02-09, click here for a review.

This time these two reports are stand alone reports, which happens quite often. But with the next scheduled release of these two reports there will be several other news reports released, one of them Canadian.

Here is how the reports for this month are set up:

USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m – Stats

Previous = -0.3%

Forecast = 0.6%

USD Durable Goods Orders m/m – Stats

Previous = -2.6%

Forecast = 1.2%

It appears that the economists believe that durable goods orders will show an increase for last month.

The USD Core Durable Goods Orders appear to have the greatest impact on the currency market, but if they both do not come out moving in the same direction, either positive or negative, there can be a conflict, who knows what may happen then.

If the USD Core Durable Goods comes out 2.0% above or below the “forecast” of 0.6%, I will give serious thought to a trade of GBP/USD – of course, taking into account what the outcome of USD Durable Goods Orders is.

If the report comes out 2.0% below the “forecast” I will BUY the GBP/USD, and if the report comes out 2.0% above the “forecast”, then a SELL of the GBP/USD currency pair will be in order.

There is a note in the FOREX Factory Calendar concerning these reports:

“Actual > Forecast = Good for currency (Note: While this is the ‘usual’ effect, under current market conditions the reverse tends to be true against some currencies, as bad data has been triggering the purchase of US bonds);”

Soon after the reports have been released I will post a “follow up” report of the results.

The next scheduled release of these two reports on Wednesday, 11-25-09 at 9:30 AM ET, at this point in time a Canadian news report and three other USA news reports will be released.

Stay tuned!