The Fundamental FOREX Blog

On Tuesday 10-22-09 at 8:30 AM ET, two Canadian reports were released

CAD Retails Sales MoM
CAD Core Retail Sales MoM

Canada’s “Statistics Canada”  release these monthly reports.

And,

USD Initial Jobless Claims along with the
USD Continuing Claims reports.

United States “Department of Labor” release these reports weekly.

Since both the Canadian and USA reports have an impact on the currency markets, it may be a little tricky doing a trade. And it was – nothing seemed to be as it should have been.

I did a “preview” post on Wednesday, 10-21-09, click here for a review.

Most early days/months, I would set up to trade the CAD involved currency pairs, but this time I was more interested in USA Jobless Claims – so I set up to trade the EUR/USD. Which I did – not to my best financial interest.

As things turned out, the only currency pair that the traders treated with any respect was the CAD/JPY which eventually moved in the predicted direction

Here is what the set up was for the CAD “Retail Sales” reports and the USD “Initial Jobless Claims“:

CAD – Retail Sales MoM stats
Previous = -0.6% revised = -0.6%

Forecast = 0.2% revised = 0.3%

Actual = 0.8%
Good – higher then “forecast” by 0.6% and higher then the revised “forecast” by 0.5% – also higher then the “previous” by a huge amount of 1.4% and higher then the revised “previous” by 1.3%.

USD – Initial Jobless Claims stats
Previous = 514K revised = 520K

Forecast = 516K

Actual = 531K
BAD – higher then the “forecast” by 15,000, higher then the “previous” by 17,000, even higher then the revised “previous” by 11,000.

a one minute CAD/JPY chart

This CAD/JPY currency pair ranged the 1st two minutes – then moved down the next 5 minutes about 25 PIPS, against the CAD – It then reversed up the next 44 minutes about 46 PIPS – this was in the predicted direction, finally.

a one minute EUR/CAD chart

This EUR/CAD currency pair spiked down about 27 PIPS – then moved up the next 14 minutes about 53 PIPS, against the CAD. Not as predicted!

a one minute GBP/CAD chart

This GBP/CAD currency pair spiked up/down about 20 PIPS/30 PIPS 1st minute – then moved up the next 18 minutes about 21 PIPS at start of 2nd minute, against the CAD. Not as predicted!

a one minute USD/CAD chart

This USD/CAD currency pair spiked up/down about 5 PIPS/18 PIPS 1st minute – then small move down the second minute – then it moved up the next 32 minutes about 36 PIPS.

This currency pair was  moving in a direction after two minutes that was against the prediction for both the CAD and the USD.

a one minute EUR/JPY chart

This EUR/JPY currency pair moved down 1st six minutes about 16 PIPS – reversed up next 55 minutes about 57 PIPS.

a one minute EUR/USD chart

This EUR/USD currency pair moved down/up 1st two minutes – then moved down next 32 minutes about 26 PIPS – then moved up. And  this was my trade loss!

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

This GBP/JPY currency pair moved down 1st six minutes about 23 PIPS – reversed up next 54 minutes about 71 PIPS.

a one minute GBP/USD chart

This GBP/USD currency pair moved down/up 1st two minutes – then moved down next 30 minutes about 45 PIPS – not predicted.

a one minute USD/JPY chart

This USD/JPY currency pair moved down 1st two minutes – reversed up next 58 minutes about 40 PIPS. Not predicted.

The next scheduled release of the CAD Retail Sales report is on Tuesday, 11-24-09 at 9:30 AM ET.

The next scheduled release of the USD Initial Jobless Claims report is on Thursday, 10-29-09 at 8:30 AM ET.

I will probably post “previews” of these two reports a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!