The Fundamental FOREX Blog

Tomorrow, Friday 10-09-09 at 7:00 AM ET Canada is releasing their monthly Net Employment Change and Unemployment Rate. These reports are released by “Statistics Canada”. -

Last month I wrote a post previewing that months release as well as a follow up – click
here to see the “preview”.

You can click here to see the “follow up”.

These two reports are at times conflicting, so  –  be aware!

Here is the set up tomorrow:

CAD Employment Change stats:

Previous = 27.1K

Forecast = 4.9K    ( this is a correction)

Cad Unemployment Rate stats:

Previous = 8.7%

Forecast = 8.8%

This set up indicates that the Employment Change will show that the “forecast” indicates there will be less people employed last month than the month prior.

And, the “forecast” for the Employment Rate to go up – these two “forecast” are moving together.

Last month the “actual” Employment Change came out 47.4 higher than the scheduled “forecast” which was good for the CAD and the Unemployment Rate came out higher than the “previous” report, but lower than the “forecast”.

This was bad for the CAD.

All 4 CAD currency involved pairs moved in favor of the CAD the first minute of the report release – after that they moved against the CAD, maybe the Unemployment rate had more of an impact than I had figured.

Last month I was set up to trade the GBP/CAD currency pair and did – but the trade turned against me and I was stopped out.

Click here to see what happened.

Since it appears that both reports coming up are “forecast” to go against the CAD,
I will be set up to enter a trade of the currency pair GBP/CAD again, but this time I will pay more attention to the Unemployment Rate and if they both move in the same direction.

I will be looking for at least a 15K to 20K difference between the “actual” and the “forecast” of the Change in Employment – also, at least a 0.1% change in the Unemployment rate. Of course, both either in favor of or against the CAD.

I will post a “follow up” soon after.

The next schedule release of these reports is Friday, 11-06-09 at 8:00 AM ET, I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.

Remember, “Past performances are not an indication of future results!”

Stay tuned!