The Fundamental FOREX Blog

On Wednesday, 09-30-09 at 8:15 AM ET, the “USD ADP Non- Farm Employment change” was released by Automatic Data Processing, Inc.

I wrote a “preview” post on Tuesday, 09-29-09, click here for a review.

I also posted a “follow up” on Saturday, 09-05-09 of the report released on Wednesday, 09-02-09, Click here for a review.

I decided that the GBP/JPY currency pair would be the one to watch and possibly trade for this report – here is what happened:

USD ADP Non- Farm Employment change stats:

Previous = -298K revised = -277K

Forecast = -194K

Actual = -254K                   bad – lower than “forecast” by 60K

This “actual” report was down 60K from the “forecast” which is bad for the USD, the revised “previous” presented some improvement to last month.

The currency traders were kind of caught in a difficult situation with another economic news report coming out at 8:30 AM ET – just 15 minutes later.

I was looking for a 50K difference for a trade entry, and the 60K difference was more than enough to enter a trade. I had to exit this particular trade very quickly since there were some other economic reports scheduled for release at 8:30 AM ET. So I did a trade – here are the charts.

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

This GBP/JPY currency pair was the currency pair I had decided to trade if the USD – ADP Employment change came out off “forecast” enough to surprise the market – which it did. You can see how the market reacted between news reports.

The first 3 minutes this currency pair moved down about 58 PIPS – then reversed for a time, then appeared to clear for a set up when the next news report is released.

a one minute EUR/JPY chart

The first minute this EUR/JPY moved down about 24 PIPS, then reversed the next 7 minutes – then appeared to clear for the next news release.

a one minute GBP/USD chart

This GBP/USD currency pair moved down for 14 minutes about 75 PIPS -  then reversed for the 8:30 AM reports.

a one minute USD/CAD chart

This USD/CAD currency pair had a minor move up -  then reversed and  ranged for 6 minutes,  the pair then moved up until the 8:30 AM reports.

a one minute USD/JPY chart

The first minute this USD/JPY spiked down about 15 PIPS, then reversed up the next 14 minutes 23 PIPS – then the 8:30 AM reports were released.

The EUR/USD currency pair did not appear to have any reaction to either the 8:15 AM or 8:30 AM news reports.

The next ADP report is scheduled for Wednesday, November 04, 2009 at 9:15 AM ET.

I will probably write a “preview” post a day or two before.

Stay tuned!