On Friday 10-02-09 at 8:30 AM ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the monthly reports of the USD Non-Farm Employment Change and Unemployment Rate.
These will be released along with 4 other economic reports:
USD Change in Manufacturing Payrolls
USD Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)
USD Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)
USD Average Weekly Hours
These additional reports should not greatly affect the currency market.
This will be my first time to post these economic news reports, but I do have “results” records going back for sometime, of course, only the last month or so would be of any help.
Here is how the reports are set up for this month:
USD Non-Farm Employment Change – Stats
Previous = -216K
Forecast = -186K
USD Unemployment Rate – Stats
Previous = 9.7%
Forecast = 9.8%
It appears that the economists believe that Employment is going to improve and that the Employment Rate is going to go up for last month, an obvious conflict.
It is difficult for me to say which report will have the greatest impact on the market, some say that the Employment Change is the report that has the most impact.
I am going to watch both very carefully, hopefully they will come out in the same direction – Employment Change will improve and Unemployment Rate will go down, or the reverse.
Let’s take a look at what happened last month:
USD Non-Farm Employment Change – Stats
Previous = -247K revised = 276K
Forecast = -186K
Actual = -216K
USD Unemployment Rate – Stats
Previous = 9.4%
Forecast = 9.5%
Actual = 9.7%
As you can see, the Employment Change showed an improvement in the employment situation, which is good for the US economy – but, the Unemployment rate came out much higher than “forecast”, not a good showing for the US economy, a big conflict for currency traders to deal with.
I will show all 6 currency pair charts that I monitor, one of which I executed a trade on, so that you can see how the traders reacted to the news releases.
This EUR/JPY currency pair did a spike down the 1st minute at the moment of release about 34 PIPS – reversed up the next 8 minutes about 140 PIPS – reversed down the next 30 minutes about 131 PIPS.
a one minute EUR/USD chart
This EUR/USD currency pair did a minor spike down the 1st two minutes at the moment of release about 30 PIPS – minor moves the next 7 minutes – then moved down the next 30 minutes about 85 PIPS.
a one minute GBP/JPY chart
This GBP/JPY currency pair did a spike down the 1st two minutes at the moment of release about 50 PIPS – reversed up the next 7 minutes about 160 PIPS – reversed down the next 30 minutes about 150 PIPS.
a one minute GBP/USD chart
This GBP/USD currency pair moved up the 1st six minutes at the moment of release about 30 PIPS – reversed down the next 33 minutes about 100 PIPS.
a one minute USD/CAD chart
This USD/CAD currency pair did a spike up the 1st minute at the moment of release about 27 PIPS – reversed down the next 4 minutes about 70 PIPS – reversed up the next 27 minutes about 90 PIPS.
a one minute USD/JPY chart
This USD/JPY currency pair did a spike down the 1st two minutes at the moment of release about 36 PIPS – reversed up the next 7 minutes about 92 PIPS – reversed down the next 32 minutes about 45 PIPS.
The trade I did here was a winner.
Soon after the reports have been released I will post a “follow up” report of the results.
The next release of these reports is scheduled for Friday, 11-06-09 at 8:30 AM ET, I will probably post a “preview” a day or two prior.
Stay tuned!
