The Fundamental FOREX Blog

On Tuesday 09-22-09 at 8:30 AM ET, two Canadian reports were released

CAD Retails Sales MoM
CAD Core Retail Sales MoM

I posted a “preview” of these reports on Monday 09-21-09, click here for a review.

I also did a “follow up” of last months reports, click here for a review.

Both reports are forecast to be less than the last months reports. Resulting perhaps, in a decline in the Canadian economy.

Canada’s “Statistics Canada”  release their monthly report of  “Core Retail Sales” M/M which  excludes the sale of autos, and “Retails Sales” M/M which represents total consumer spending. These 2 reports come out about 50 days after the months end.

It appears that the “Retail Sales” report has a little more impact for traders than the “Core Retail Sales“.

Here is what happened when the “Retail Sales” and “Core Retail Sales” reports were released:

CAD – Retail Sales MoM stats
Previous = 1.0%
Forecast = 0.8%
Actual = -0.6%

CAD – Core Retail Sales MoM stats
Previous = 1.0% revised = 1.1%
Forecast = 0.1%
Actual = -0.8%

Both reports came out in the same direction and were lower than the “forecast”. The Retail Sales report came out lower than “forecast” by 1.4%, and the Core Retail Sales report came out 0.9% than “forecast” and had a “revision” of the “previous” report of 0.1% higher than last months report.

These reports were bad for the CAD and did affect the 4 currency pairs that I was monitoring.

I had been set up to trade the currency pair USD/CAD, but did not believe that this pair was moving the way I thought it should – so, I did not trade this time. Glad I didn’t enter a trade, see the following charts.

It almost looks like the trading market had some idea how the reports would come out ahead of time – notice that 8 minutes prior to the report release all 4 currency pairs moved against the CAD.

a one minute USD/CAD chart

Here is the USD/CAD making its pre-report move and then at the report release the pair spikes up for 3 minutes about 39 PIPS – this was has predicted, but then reversed down in favor of the CAD.

a one minute EUR/CAD chart

Here is the EUR/CAD making its pre-report move and then at the report release the pair spikes up for 3 minutes about 52 PIPS – this was has predicted, but then reversed down in favor of the CAD about 25 PIPS in 6 minutes – but it continued its move up about 31 PIPS the next 30 minutes. This could have been a good trade.

a one minute CAD/JPY chart

Here is the CAD/JPY making its pre-report move and then at the report release the pair spikes down for 2 minutes about 24 PIPS – this was has predicted, but then ranged the next 51 minutes – then it continued down. This could have been a fair opportunity to trade.

a one minute GBP/CAD chart

Here is the GBP/CAD making its pre-report move and then at the report release the pair spikes up for 3 minutes about 54 PIPS – this was has predicted, but then reversed down in favor of the CAD for 5 minutes – then ranged. This may have not have been good to trade.

The next scheduled release for these 2 reports will be on Thursday 10-22-09 at 8:30AM ET, and will be released along with the Initial Unemployment claims and the Continuing claims.

Some times report scheduling can be changed.

Chances are I will post a “preview” of these reports a day or two prior.

Stay tuned!