The Fundamental FOREX Blog

Tomorrow, Wednesday 09-09-09 at 8:15 AM ET, the CAD – Housing Starts report will be released. This report is released monthly by CMHC – Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

This report has not proved to have much impact on the FOREX currency market in the past, but with the current state of economic affairs around the world I am keeping an eye on it.

The last time this report was released was on Tuesday, 08-11-09 at 8:15 AM ET, I monitored 4 CAD involved currency pairs, CAD/JPY, EUR/CAD, GBP/CAD and USD/CAD – only two of these pairs showed any response to the report release.

Here is how the last report was set up and what the results were:

CAD – Housing Starts stats

Previous = 141K revised = 138K

Forecast = 143K

Actual = 132K

This was not very good for the CAD economy, and not much different then the “forecast”, only 11K less – obviously not enough to move the market against the CAD.

a one minute EUR/CAD chart

This EUR/CAD currency pair moved up the first two minutes and then reversed down about 35 PIPS in 34 minutes.

a one minute GBP/CAD chart

This GBP/CAD currency pair moved down about 20 PIPS in 5 minutes – reversed and ranged.

Here is what is happening on 09-09-09:

CAD – Housing Starts stats

Previous = 134K

Forecast = 137K

This looks like the CHMC believes that the Canadian housing starts will increase.

It appears that it will take more than 11K difference between the “actual” and the “forecast”, I am looking for maybe 20K difference, and I will be set up to trade the EUR/CAD – 157K or higher – sell EUR/CAD, or, 117 or lower – buy EUR/CAD – maybe.

This a first time I will be setting up for a trade on this report, so, we will see how it goes.

The next time this will be released will be on Thursday, 10-08-09 at 8:15 AM ET.

I will write a “follow up” post soon after this report is finished.

Stay tuned!