Tomorrow, Wednesday, 09-02-09 at 8:15 AM ET, the “USD ADP Non- Farm Employment change” will be released by Automatic Data Processing, Inc.
The economist around the country believe that there will be an improvement in the number of employed people by 121K, a good improvement over last month.
Last months report was an improvement over the previous month of July, but the “actual” of -371K was 20K higher than the “forecast” of -351K which was not enough to have a big impact on the currency market – but it did have a minor impact on two of the “crosses” and the USD/JPY
Let me show how this last months report worked out.
USD ADP Non- Farm Employment change stats:
Previous = -473K
Forecast = -351K
Actual = -371K 20K higher than the “forecast”, a small surprise for traders.
Well, check out these charts to see what happened:
a one minute USD/JPY chart
This USD/JPY currency pair spiked down about 20 PIPS in 3 minutes, then reversed up 24 PIPS in 7 minutes – then moved down.
a one minute EUR/JPY chart
This EUR/JPY currency pair spiked down about 45 PIPS in about 3 minutes, then reversed up 45 PIPS in 4 minutes – then reversed down the next 20 minutes about 46 PIPS.
a one minute GBP/JPY chart
This GBP/JPY currency pair spiked down about 55 PIPS in about 3 minutes, then reversed up 52 PIPS in 4 minutes – then reversed down the next 19 minutes about 55 PIPS.
It appears that the GBP/JPY currency pair would be the one to watch for this report – here what is going on tomorrow:
USD ADP Non- Farm Employment change stats:
Previous = -371K
Forecast = -250K
The economists believe that employment may improve – however, my guess is that with summer jobs vacated, employment may not improve that much – I will be watching for the GBP/JPY to move up either at the point of the report release or after a few moments while the traders wait for the revisions.
The next ADP report is scheduled for Wednesday September 30, 2009 at 8:15 AM ET.
Stay tuned!
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