The Fundamental FOREX Blog

Tomorrow, Tuesday 09-01-09 at 10:00 AM ET the USD ISM Manufacturing PMI and Pending Home Sales MoM reports will be released along with the ISM Prices Paid, Pending Home Sales YoY and Construction Spending MoM.

USD ISM Manufacturing PMI and Pending Home Sales MoM  have the greatest impact on the currency markets – the ISM Manufacturing PMI being the better.

The USD ISM Manufacturing PMI is released by the Institute of Supply Management
and is released monthly,
and the Pending Home Sales MoM  is released by the National Association of Realtors and is released monthly.

The last time this combination of reports was released was on Wednesday, 07-01-09 at 10:00 AM ET.

Here was the set up:

USD ISM Manufacturing PMI stats:

Previous = 42.8

Forecast = 44.6

Actual = 44.8   this was good for the USD, but not enough above the “forecast” for any
surprise to the market.

USD Pending Home Sales MoM stats:

Previous = 6.7% revised = 7.1%

Forecast = 0.7%

Actual = 0.1%   this was not good for the USD, but not enough below the “forecast” for
any surprise to the market.

Since both of these reports were in conflict, the currency pairs I monitor had mixed, but uneventful moves. This months reports may be different – here is the set up.

USD ISM Manufacturing PMI stats:

Previous = 48.9

Forecast = 50.2

USD Pending Home Sales MoM stats:

Previous = 3.6%

Forecast = 1.7%

It appears that the “forecast” for each report are in conflict – but the ISM Manufacturing PMI will have the most impact.

I will probably set up to trade the currency pair EUR/JPY, if the Manufacturing PMI “actual“ comes out about 4 more or less than the “forecast”, and the Pending Home Sales MoM  “actual” is not too far off of the “forecast” I may enter a trade.

This could be a tricky trade at best – be careful.

I am not sure when the next scheduled release of  this combination of reports will be.

But, stay tuned!