The Fundamental FOREX Blog

On Wednesday 08-26-09 at 8:30 AM ET, the Core Durable Goods Orders MoM and Durable Goods Orders MoM were released by the Census Bureau

I wrote a “preview “ post on Tuesday 08-25-09, click here for a review.

My last “follow up” post concerning these reports was on July 30, 2009, click here for a review.

Also a post concerning this news report was on July 3rd, 2009, click here to review.

These two reports are usually stand alone reports, it appears that this time that a Canadian report was released as well, the CAD – Corporate Profits QoQ report – should not have had any affect on the currency market for these USD reports.

I did not figure in the Canadian report.

Here is how the reports were set up and the results:

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m – Stats

Previous = 1.1% Revised = 2.5%

Forecast = 1.1% Revised = 1.1%

Actual = 0.8%    bad – lower by 0.2% than “forecast”

Durable Goods Orders m/m – Stats

Previous = -2.5% Revised = -1.3%

Forecast = 3.3% Revised = 3.1%

Actual = 4.9%

The Core Durable Goods Orders appear to have the greatest impact on the currency market, but in this case, the reports were in conflict with one another, the Core Durable Goods Orders were down from the “forecast“, and the Durable Goods Orders was up from the “forecast“.

Three of the USD currency pairs moved in favor of the USD, since the Core Durable Goods Orders report came out negative and bad for the USD, the currency pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY should have moved against the USD.

Only the USD/JPY moved as predicted.

The two “crosses” EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY moved as predicted.

Here are the charts:

a one minute USD/JPY chart

This USD/JPY currency pair spiked up – retraced about 9 PIPS, then moved down about
22 PIPS in 46 minutes – predicted, but hardly offering any good trading opportunities.

a one minute EUR/USD chart

This EUR/USD currency pair had a minor spike up 1st minute – retraced about 30 PIPS in 7 minutes – not predicted.

a one minute GBP/USD chart

This GBP/USD currency pair moved down about 30 PIPS in 6 minutes – not predicted.

a one minute USD/CAD chart

This USD/CAD currency pair had spiked down 1st minute – retraced about 14 PIPS then moved up about 23 PIPS in 5 minutes – not predicted.

Crosses:

a one minute GBP/JPY chart

This GBP/JPY currency pair spiked up 1st minute, retraced about 20 PIPS – then reversed the second minutes down about 50 PIPS in 5 minutes – as predicted.

This is a correction – I made just one trade with this currency pair which was a small win.

a one minute EUR/JPY chart

This EUR/JPY currency pair spiked up 1st minute, retraced about 20 PIPS – then reversed the second minutes down about 40 PIPS in 6 minutes – as predicted.

The next scheduled release of these reports is on Friday, 09-29-09 at 8:30 AM ET.

Stay tuned!