On Wednesday 08-05-09 at 10:00 AM ET, the USD ISM Non – Manufacturing Composite for July was released along with USD Factory Orders report.
I did a preview of the reports, click here to see.
The GBP NIESR GDP Estimate report was scheduled to be released at the same time as the ISM and Factory Orders reports – however, the GBP data was released 9 hours earlier.
It appears that current market conditions have changed the dynamics of trading, so now traders are investing in other things like bonds when the news is bad for the U.S. economy, which I believe was the case for this report.
Here is what happened:
USD-8-00AM-08-05-09
USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI
previous= 47.0
forecast= 48.1
actual= 46.4
there were no revisions
As you can see, the ISM report was not good for the economy, and, it was lower than “forecast”. That said, every indication was that the market should have moved against the USD.
Something I have noticed of late, it seems that when the news is good for the US economy, the two crosses I monitor, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY, seem to go up. But it seems that this time they went down with bad news. I do not know if this will repeat as a trend or not, I will keep a close watch.
Also, all but one USD involved currency pair that I keep a watch on moved in favor the USD – the one exception was the USD/JPY.
Take a look….
a one minute USD/JPY chart
This USD/JPY currency pair moved in the direction I thought it would, it moved down about 44 PIPS in 19 minutes – several short term “scalps” could have been made.
a one minute EUR/USD chart
This EUR/USD currency pair moved in favor of the USD about 32 PIPS in 12 minutes.
a one minute GBP/USD chart
This GBP/USD currency pair moved in favor of the USD about 50 PIPS in 19 minutes.
a one minute USD/CAD chart
This USD/CAD currency pair moved in favor of the USD about 44 PIPS in 19 minutes.
Here are the crosses.
a one minute EUR/JPY chart
This EUR/JPY currency pair moved moved down about 89 PIPS in 19 minutes.
a one minute GBP/JPY chart
This GBP/JPY currency pair moved moved down about 108 PIPS in 19 minutes.
Notice that 5 of the six currency pairs reversed market direction at about the same time – I wonder what happened in the world to cause that?
The next schedule release for the USD ISM Manufacturing Composite is on Thursday 09-03-09 at 10:00 AM ET – at this point in time, it is a stand-alone report.
Stay tuned!
