Coming out this week on Thursday the 23rd of July, 2009 is the USD Initial Jobless Claims and the Continuing Jobless Claims. These reports are released by the Department of Labor.
I did post a brief review of last weeks report here
The economic community seems to think that the “jobless claims” will be greater than last week.
Let’s set this up, a pre-view.
The “previous” Initial Jobless Claims report is about 522K, and the “Forecast” by the economist is 548K, a good size increase.
Beware, almost every week there is a “revision” of the “previous” and the “forecast”, which usually comes out a few minutes after the initial release, this could affect the market.
Last week the reports were in favor of the US economy, even the revisions were helpful.
The 3 currency pairs, USD/CAD, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD moved in the right direction after the first minute of the report release – which was up for the USD/CAD and was down for the GBP/USD and EUR/USD.
The 2 cross currency pairs EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY along with the USD/JPY moved in the wrong direction after a minute or 2 into the report – which was down as well. I traded the USD/JPY, which turned out ugly.
In my experience, if the “jobless claims” is higher than forecast and the “continuing claims” are not conflicting, the “cross currency” pairs, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY have a tendency to move up, a respectful amount.
If the opposite it true of both reports, that is both reports go down, the currency pairs, GBP/USD, and EUR/USD would be a good bet to decline, except that the USD/CAD would likely move up.
Check back as I will post a “follow-up” of what happened, with the report and with me.
Stay tuned!
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